Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.4% implied probability of no change in the Fed funds target range at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures. The March nonfarm payrolls report, released April 3, showed 178,000 jobs added—exceeding economist forecasts—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling economic strength that tempers rate-cut expectations. March FOMC projections held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% while forecasting one cut later in 2026 amid revised-higher inflation to 2.7%, compounded by Middle East oil shocks. Scenarios challenging this positioning include sharply weaker April jobs data or sub-2% core CPI prints ahead of the meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于不变 98.4%
下降25个基点 <1%
提高25个基点以上 <1%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
$49,734,713 交易量
$49,734,713 交易量
2026-04-29
降息50个基点以上
<1%
下降25个基点
1%
不变
98%
提高25个基点以上
1%
不变 98.4%
下降25个基点 <1%
提高25个基点以上 <1%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
$49,734,713 交易量
$49,734,713 交易量
2026-04-29
降息50个基点以上
$17,232,412 交易量
<1%
下降25个基点
$10,419,133 交易量
1%
不变
$10,918,059 交易量
98%
提高25个基点以上
$11,166,018 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.4% implied probability of no change in the Fed funds target range at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures. The March nonfarm payrolls report, released April 3, showed 178,000 jobs added—exceeding economist forecasts—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling economic strength that tempers rate-cut expectations. March FOMC projections held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% while forecasting one cut later in 2026 amid revised-higher inflation to 2.7%, compounded by Middle East oil shocks. Scenarios challenging this positioning include sharply weaker April jobs data or sub-2% core CPI prints ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
交易量
$49,734,713结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.4% implied probability of no change in the Fed funds target range at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures. The March nonfarm payrolls report, released April 3, showed 178,000 jobs added—exceeding economist forecasts—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling economic strength that tempers rate-cut expectations. March FOMC projections held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% while forecasting one cut later in 2026 amid revised-higher inflation to 2.7%, compounded by Middle East oil shocks. Scenarios challenging this positioning include sharply weaker April jobs data or sub-2% core CPI prints ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$49,734,713结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.4% implied probability of no change in the Fed funds target range at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures. The March nonfarm payrolls report, released April 3, showed 178,000 jobs added—exceeding economist forecasts—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling economic strength that tempers rate-cut expectations. March FOMC projections held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% while forecasting one cut later in 2026 amid revised-higher inflation to 2.7%, compounded by Middle East oil shocks. Scenarios challenging this positioning include sharply weaker April jobs data or sub-2% core CPI prints ahead of the meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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