Democratic incumbent Derek Tran enters the 2026 general election for California's 45th congressional district with a solid edge, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party an 87 percent implied probability of victory compared with 10.5 percent for Republicans. The seat shifted modestly toward Democrats after recent redistricting, now carrying a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+3, while Democratic voter registration holds an eight-point advantage over Republicans in a district covering parts of northern Orange and Los Angeles counties. Tran secured a narrow 2024 win by roughly 600 votes and maintains a substantial fundraising lead heading into the June 2 top-two primary against five Republican challengers. These structural factors, combined with the district's historical voting patterns, underpin current market positioning ahead of the November contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
87%
共和党
11%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$1,651 交易量
87%
共和党
$6,226 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran enters the 2026 general election for California's 45th congressional district with a solid edge, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party an 87 percent implied probability of victory compared with 10.5 percent for Republicans. The seat shifted modestly toward Democrats after recent redistricting, now carrying a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+3, while Democratic voter registration holds an eight-point advantage over Republicans in a district covering parts of northern Orange and Los Angeles counties. Tran secured a narrow 2024 win by roughly 600 votes and maintains a substantial fundraising lead heading into the June 2 top-two primary against five Republican challengers. These structural factors, combined with the district's historical voting patterns, underpin current market positioning ahead of the November contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$7,877结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran enters the 2026 general election for California's 45th congressional district with a solid edge, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party an 87 percent implied probability of victory compared with 10.5 percent for Republicans. The seat shifted modestly toward Democrats after recent redistricting, now carrying a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+3, while Democratic voter registration holds an eight-point advantage over Republicans in a district covering parts of northern Orange and Los Angeles counties. Tran secured a narrow 2024 win by roughly 600 votes and maintains a substantial fundraising lead heading into the June 2 top-two primary against five Republican challengers. These structural factors, combined with the district's historical voting patterns, underpin current market positioning ahead of the November contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$7,877结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Derek Tran enters the 2026 general election for California's 45th congressional district with a solid edge, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party an 87 percent implied probability of victory compared with 10.5 percent for Republicans. The seat shifted modestly toward Democrats after recent redistricting, now carrying a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+3, while Democratic voter registration holds an eight-point advantage over Republicans in a district covering parts of northern Orange and Los Angeles counties. Tran secured a narrow 2024 win by roughly 600 votes and maintains a substantial fundraising lead heading into the June 2 top-two primary against five Republican challengers. These structural factors, combined with the district's historical voting patterns, underpin current market positioning ahead of the November contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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