Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran's commanding position drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 85% implied probability in the CA-45 House race, bolstered by recent redistricting that shifted the district's partisan lean from D+1.5 to D+3 or D+4 under new maps. The March 6 filing deadline certified a crowded five-candidate Republican primary field—Mark Leonard, Chi Charlie Nguyen, Amy Phan West, Chuong Vo, and Thomas Vo—against Tran as the lone Democrat, likely advancing him easily in California's top-two system ahead of the June 2 primary. Tran's $2.3 million cash-on-hand dwarfs GOP rivals, aligning with Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections as of mid-March. Midterm dynamics and fundraising edge reinforce his incumbency advantage from the narrow 2024 flip.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
85%
共和党
13%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$1,560 交易量
85%
共和党
$3,652 交易量
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran's commanding position drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 85% implied probability in the CA-45 House race, bolstered by recent redistricting that shifted the district's partisan lean from D+1.5 to D+3 or D+4 under new maps. The March 6 filing deadline certified a crowded five-candidate Republican primary field—Mark Leonard, Chi Charlie Nguyen, Amy Phan West, Chuong Vo, and Thomas Vo—against Tran as the lone Democrat, likely advancing him easily in California's top-two system ahead of the June 2 primary. Tran's $2.3 million cash-on-hand dwarfs GOP rivals, aligning with Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections as of mid-March. Midterm dynamics and fundraising edge reinforce his incumbency advantage from the narrow 2024 flip.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$5,212结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran's commanding position drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 85% implied probability in the CA-45 House race, bolstered by recent redistricting that shifted the district's partisan lean from D+1.5 to D+3 or D+4 under new maps. The March 6 filing deadline certified a crowded five-candidate Republican primary field—Mark Leonard, Chi Charlie Nguyen, Amy Phan West, Chuong Vo, and Thomas Vo—against Tran as the lone Democrat, likely advancing him easily in California's top-two system ahead of the June 2 primary. Tran's $2.3 million cash-on-hand dwarfs GOP rivals, aligning with Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections as of mid-March. Midterm dynamics and fundraising edge reinforce his incumbency advantage from the narrow 2024 flip.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,212结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran's commanding position drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 85% implied probability in the CA-45 House race, bolstered by recent redistricting that shifted the district's partisan lean from D+1.5 to D+3 or D+4 under new maps. The March 6 filing deadline certified a crowded five-candidate Republican primary field—Mark Leonard, Chi Charlie Nguyen, Amy Phan West, Chuong Vo, and Thomas Vo—against Tran as the lone Democrat, likely advancing him easily in California's top-two system ahead of the June 2 primary. Tran's $2.3 million cash-on-hand dwarfs GOP rivals, aligning with Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections as of mid-March. Midterm dynamics and fundraising edge reinforce his incumbency advantage from the narrow 2024 flip.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题