California’s 30th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in strong voter registration advantages and Laura Friedman’s decisive 2024 general-election victory as the sitting representative. The June 2026 top-two primary features the incumbent alongside limited Republican and independent challengers, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of prevailing in November, consistent with historical midterm patterns in heavily partisan districts and the absence of recent polling or events indicating a competitive shift. A national Republican surge, unexpected primary fragmentation, or late-breaking developments involving the incumbent could still narrow the margin, though structural factors continue to favor Democratic retention.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$10,697 交易量
$10,697 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
8%
$10,697 交易量
$10,697 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$5,969 交易量
93%
共和党
$4,728 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 30th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in strong voter registration advantages and Laura Friedman’s decisive 2024 general-election victory as the sitting representative. The June 2026 top-two primary features the incumbent alongside limited Republican and independent challengers, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of prevailing in November, consistent with historical midterm patterns in heavily partisan districts and the absence of recent polling or events indicating a competitive shift. A national Republican surge, unexpected primary fragmentation, or late-breaking developments involving the incumbent could still narrow the margin, though structural factors continue to favor Democratic retention.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$10,697结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 30th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in strong voter registration advantages and Laura Friedman’s decisive 2024 general-election victory as the sitting representative. The June 2026 top-two primary features the incumbent alongside limited Republican and independent challengers, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of prevailing in November, consistent with historical midterm patterns in heavily partisan districts and the absence of recent polling or events indicating a competitive shift. A national Republican surge, unexpected primary fragmentation, or late-breaking developments involving the incumbent could still narrow the margin, though structural factors continue to favor Democratic retention.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$10,697结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 30th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in strong voter registration advantages and Laura Friedman’s decisive 2024 general-election victory as the sitting representative. The June 2026 top-two primary features the incumbent alongside limited Republican and independent challengers, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of prevailing in November, consistent with historical midterm patterns in heavily partisan districts and the absence of recent polling or events indicating a competitive shift. A national Republican surge, unexpected primary fragmentation, or late-breaking developments involving the incumbent could still narrow the margin, though structural factors continue to favor Democratic retention.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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