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科技·AI

6月30日前FrontierMath Benchmark上的xAI Grok得分？

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科技·AI

6月30日前FrontierMath Benchmark上的xAI Grok得分？

$15,883 交易量

2026-02-28
Polymarket

$15,883 交易量

Polymarket

25%+

$3,276 交易量

73%

30%+

$12,487 交易量

69%

40%+

$0 交易量

57%

50%以上

$119 交易量

28%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on xAI's Grok achieving a competitive score on the FrontierMath benchmark—Epoch AI's test of hundreds of unpublished, expert-level math problems including open research challenges—reflects its historical lag behind leaders like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, which hit 47.6% overall and 38% on Tier 4 as of March 2026. Grok 4's last independent evaluation in July 2025 yielded just 12-14% on Tiers 1-3, with no public FrontierMath results for later versions like Grok 4.1 despite xAI's focus on reasoning agents. Rapid competitive advances underscore the gap, but a potential Grok 5 release before June 30 could shift dynamics, as xAI accelerates multimodal and reasoning capabilities amid intensifying AI lab rivalries.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$15,883
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on xAI's Grok achieving a competitive score on the FrontierMath benchmark—Epoch AI's test of hundreds of unpublished, expert-level math problems including open research challenges—reflects its historical lag behind leaders like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, which hit 47.6% overall and 38% on Tier 4 as of March 2026. Grok 4's last independent evaluation in July 2025 yielded just 12-14% on Tiers 1-3, with no public FrontierMath results for later versions like Grok 4.1 despite xAI's focus on reasoning agents. Rapid competitive advances underscore the gap, but a potential Grok 5 release before June 30 could shift dynamics, as xAI accelerates multimodal and reasoning capabilities amid intensifying AI lab rivalries.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$15,883
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"6月30日前FrontierMath Benchmark上的xAI Grok得分？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25%+" at 73%, followed by "30%+" at 69%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "6月30日前FrontierMath Benchmark上的xAI Grok得分？" has generated $15.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

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The current frontrunner for "6月30日前FrontierMath Benchmark上的xAI Grok得分？" is "25%+" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30%+" at 69%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

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