Traders' 76.5% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any full-scale U.S. ground invasion or occupation of Latin American territory in 2026 to date, despite the Trump administration's January 3 limited airstrikes and capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, widely deemed a targeted intervention rather than invasion under market criteria. Recent escalations, including Pentagon announcements of "Operation Total Extermination" against cartels in Ecuador and Colombia (March 23) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's calls for allied offensives (March 5), emphasize naval deployments, exercises, and counter-narcotics strikes over territorial conquests. International backlash, UN condemnations, and focus on diplomacy amid China competition reinforce barriers to broader military action through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$195,998 交易量
$195,998 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$195,998 交易量
$195,998 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Traders' 76.5% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any full-scale U.S. ground invasion or occupation of Latin American territory in 2026 to date, despite the Trump administration's January 3 limited airstrikes and capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, widely deemed a targeted intervention rather than invasion under market criteria. Recent escalations, including Pentagon announcements of "Operation Total Extermination" against cartels in Ecuador and Colombia (March 23) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's calls for allied offensives (March 5), emphasize naval deployments, exercises, and counter-narcotics strikes over territorial conquests. International backlash, UN condemnations, and focus on diplomacy amid China competition reinforce barriers to broader military action through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市場開放時間： Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
交易量
$195,998結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Traders' 76.5% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any full-scale U.S. ground invasion or occupation of Latin American territory in 2026 to date, despite the Trump administration's January 3 limited airstrikes and capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, widely deemed a targeted intervention rather than invasion under market criteria. Recent escalations, including Pentagon announcements of "Operation Total Extermination" against cartels in Ecuador and Colombia (March 23) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's calls for allied offensives (March 5), emphasize naval deployments, exercises, and counter-narcotics strikes over territorial conquests. International backlash, UN condemnations, and focus on diplomacy amid China competition reinforce barriers to broader military action through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$195,998結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' 76.5% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any full-scale U.S. ground invasion or occupation of Latin American territory in 2026 to date, despite the Trump administration's January 3 limited airstrikes and capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, widely deemed a targeted intervention rather than invasion under market criteria. Recent escalations, including Pentagon announcements of "Operation Total Extermination" against cartels in Ecuador and Colombia (March 23) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's calls for allied offensives (March 5), emphasize naval deployments, exercises, and counter-narcotics strikes over territorial conquests. International backlash, UN condemnations, and focus on diplomacy amid China competition reinforce barriers to broader military action through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions