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科技·AI

到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？

Market icon
科技·AI

到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？

$1,395,883 交易量

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,395,883 交易量

Polymarket
Market icon

OpenAI

$337,855 交易量

30%

Market icon

xAI

$538,365 交易量

15%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$223,026 交易量

7%

Market icon

Meta

$12,737 交易量

7%

Market icon

Mistral

$6,327 交易量

6%

Market icon

Z.ai

$4,396 交易量

6%

Market icon

阿里巴巴

$4,733 交易量

10%

Market icon

百度

$1,923 交易量

4%

Market icon

Nvidia

$5,841 交易量

4%

Market icon

美團

$2,711 交易量

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI at a 30% implied probability to claim the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard by June 30, 2026, fueled by rumors of imminent GPT-5.x releases and ChatGPT 5.3 updates amid its history of frontrunning benchmarks. xAI follows at 15%, bolstered by Grok 4.20's near-top Elo scores (e.g., third on recent LMSYS at ~1500) and massive Colossus cluster scaling for rapid iteration. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 dominates current arenas like Arena.ai Text and Code, but exclusion from betting options highlights focus on challengers. Mid-March's unprecedented 12-model launch wave, including Meta's delay, underscores fierce competition; watch OpenAI previews and Google I/O in May for swings.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI at a 30% implied probability to claim the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard by June 30, 2026, fueled by rumors of imminent GPT-5.x releases and ChatGPT 5.3 updates amid its history of frontrunning benchmarks. xAI follows at 15%, bolstered by Grok 4.20's near-top Elo scores (e.g., third on recent LMSYS at ~1500) and massive Colossus cluster scaling for rapid iteration. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 dominates current arenas like Arena.ai Text and Code, but exclusion from betting options highlights focus on challengers. Mid-March's unprecedented 12-model launch wave, including Meta's delay, underscores fierce competition; watch OpenAI previews and Google I/O in May for swings.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI at a 30% implied probability to claim the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard by June 30, 2026, fueled by rumors of imminent GPT-5.x releases and ChatGPT 5.3 updates amid its history of frontrunning benchmarks. xAI follows at 15%, bolstered by Grok 4.20's near-top Elo scores (e.g., third on recent LMSYS at ~1500) and massive Colossus cluster scaling for rapid iteration. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 dominates current arenas like Arena.ai Text and Code, but exclusion from betting options highlights focus on challengers. Mid-March's unprecedented 12-model launch wave, including Meta's delay, underscores fierce competition; watch OpenAI previews and Google I/O in May for swings.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI at a 30% implied probability to claim the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard by June 30, 2026, fueled by rumors of imminent GPT-5.x releases and ChatGPT 5.3 updates amid its history of frontrunning benchmarks. xAI follows at 15%, bolstered by Grok 4.20's near-top Elo scores (e.g., third on recent LMSYS at ~1500) and massive Colossus cluster scaling for rapid iteration. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 dominates current arenas like Arena.ai Text and Code, but exclusion from betting options highlights focus on challengers. Mid-March's unprecedented 12-model launch wave, including Meta's delay, underscores fierce competition; watch OpenAI previews and Google I/O in May for swings.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 100%, followed by "OpenAI" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？" is "Anthropic" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "OpenAI" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.