Trader consensus reflects 100% certainty on no US-Iran nuclear deal by the March 31 deadline, as indirect Geneva negotiations collapsed in late February without agreement despite claims of progress, leaving maximalist US demands for zero uranium enrichment unmet by Tehran. President Trump's administration issued ultimatums tied to broader military objectives, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but announced on March 31 plans to withdraw US forces from the Iran conflict within weeks regardless of diplomatic outcome, signaling de-prioritization. Escalations from Israeli strikes post-2025 IAEA disputes and Iran's safeguards violations further eroded prospects. Only an unreported pre-deadline signing—now improbable given public statements—could alter resolution. New talks may resume in June.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$1,551,322 交易量
$1,551,322 交易量
2026-03-31
是
$1,551,322 交易量
$1,551,322 交易量
2026-03-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects 100% certainty on no US-Iran nuclear deal by the March 31 deadline, as indirect Geneva negotiations collapsed in late February without agreement despite claims of progress, leaving maximalist US demands for zero uranium enrichment unmet by Tehran. President Trump's administration issued ultimatums tied to broader military objectives, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but announced on March 31 plans to withdraw US forces from the Iran conflict within weeks regardless of diplomatic outcome, signaling de-prioritization. Escalations from Israeli strikes post-2025 IAEA disputes and Iran's safeguards violations further eroded prospects. Only an unreported pre-deadline signing—now improbable given public statements—could alter resolution. New talks may resume in June.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市場開放時間： Feb 20, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
交易量
$1,551,322結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Feb 20, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects 100% certainty on no US-Iran nuclear deal by the March 31 deadline, as indirect Geneva negotiations collapsed in late February without agreement despite claims of progress, leaving maximalist US demands for zero uranium enrichment unmet by Tehran. President Trump's administration issued ultimatums tied to broader military objectives, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but announced on March 31 plans to withdraw US forces from the Iran conflict within weeks regardless of diplomatic outcome, signaling de-prioritization. Escalations from Israeli strikes post-2025 IAEA disputes and Iran's safeguards violations further eroded prospects. Only an unreported pre-deadline signing—now improbable given public statements—could alter resolution. New talks may resume in June.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$1,551,322結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Feb 20, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Trader consensus reflects 100% certainty on no US-Iran nuclear deal by the March 31 deadline, as indirect Geneva negotiations collapsed in late February without agreement despite claims of progress, leaving maximalist US demands for zero uranium enrichment unmet by Tehran. President Trump's administration issued ultimatums tied to broader military objectives, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but announced on March 31 plans to withdraw US forces from the Iran conflict within weeks regardless of diplomatic outcome, signaling de-prioritization. Escalations from Israeli strikes post-2025 IAEA disputes and Iran's safeguards violations further eroded prospects. Only an unreported pre-deadline signing—now improbable given public statements—could alter resolution. New talks may resume in June.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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