Despite ongoing preparations by Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to present a new constitution draft to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—accelerated after a March parliamentary commission report on national solidarity—traders price a 2026 constitutional referendum announcement at just 21.5%, implying strong consensus it will not occur. The process requires 360 votes (three-fifths) in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly (TBMM) to trigger a referendum, but the People's Alliance (AKP-MHP) holds only about 323 seats, necessitating opposition support amid economic pressures and partisan divides. Justice Minister Akın Gürlek's recent call for a new charter has not advanced to votes or timelines, with no official announcement as of late March, underscoring procedural hurdles and time constraints before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite ongoing preparations by Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to present a new constitution draft to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—accelerated after a March parliamentary commission report on national solidarity—traders price a 2026 constitutional referendum announcement at just 21.5%, implying strong consensus it will not occur. The process requires 360 votes (three-fifths) in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly (TBMM) to trigger a referendum, but the People's Alliance (AKP-MHP) holds only about 323 seats, necessitating opposition support amid economic pressures and partisan divides. Justice Minister Akın Gürlek's recent call for a new charter has not advanced to votes or timelines, with no official announcement as of late March, underscoring procedural hurdles and time constraints before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$208結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite ongoing preparations by Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to present a new constitution draft to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—accelerated after a March parliamentary commission report on national solidarity—traders price a 2026 constitutional referendum announcement at just 21.5%, implying strong consensus it will not occur. The process requires 360 votes (three-fifths) in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly (TBMM) to trigger a referendum, but the People's Alliance (AKP-MHP) holds only about 323 seats, necessitating opposition support amid economic pressures and partisan divides. Justice Minister Akın Gürlek's recent call for a new charter has not advanced to votes or timelines, with no official announcement as of late March, underscoring procedural hurdles and time constraints before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$208結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite ongoing preparations by Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to present a new constitution draft to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—accelerated after a March parliamentary commission report on national solidarity—traders price a 2026 constitutional referendum announcement at just 21.5%, implying strong consensus it will not occur. The process requires 360 votes (three-fifths) in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly (TBMM) to trigger a referendum, but the People's Alliance (AKP-MHP) holds only about 323 seats, necessitating opposition support amid economic pressures and partisan divides. Justice Minister Akın Gürlek's recent call for a new charter has not advanced to votes or timelines, with no official announcement as of late March, underscoring procedural hurdles and time constraints before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions