Trump's second term as president, underway since his January 2025 inauguration, faces no active threats to his tenure by April 30, with traders pricing a 98.8% "No" probability on departure reflecting the absence of impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, resignation announcements, or major health crises in the past 30 days. No legislative votes, court rulings, or special counsel actions have gained traction to challenge his position, underscoring constitutional stability through 2029 barring extraordinary circumstances. Potential shifters include sudden scandals, verified health events, invocation of incapacity mechanisms, or unforeseen legal convictions with immediate removal implications, though historical precedents for early-term ousters remain rare. Upcoming congressional sessions pose minimal risk absent bipartisan consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$486,692 交易量
$486,692 交易量
2026-04-30
是
$486,692 交易量
$486,692 交易量
2026-04-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's second term as president, underway since his January 2025 inauguration, faces no active threats to his tenure by April 30, with traders pricing a 98.8% "No" probability on departure reflecting the absence of impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, resignation announcements, or major health crises in the past 30 days. No legislative votes, court rulings, or special counsel actions have gained traction to challenge his position, underscoring constitutional stability through 2029 barring extraordinary circumstances. Potential shifters include sudden scandals, verified health events, invocation of incapacity mechanisms, or unforeseen legal convictions with immediate removal implications, though historical precedents for early-term ousters remain rare. Upcoming congressional sessions pose minimal risk absent bipartisan consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
交易量
$486,692結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's second term as president, underway since his January 2025 inauguration, faces no active threats to his tenure by April 30, with traders pricing a 98.8% "No" probability on departure reflecting the absence of impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, resignation announcements, or major health crises in the past 30 days. No legislative votes, court rulings, or special counsel actions have gained traction to challenge his position, underscoring constitutional stability through 2029 barring extraordinary circumstances. Potential shifters include sudden scandals, verified health events, invocation of incapacity mechanisms, or unforeseen legal convictions with immediate removal implications, though historical precedents for early-term ousters remain rare. Upcoming congressional sessions pose minimal risk absent bipartisan consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$486,692結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's second term as president, underway since his January 2025 inauguration, faces no active threats to his tenure by April 30, with traders pricing a 98.8% "No" probability on departure reflecting the absence of impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, resignation announcements, or major health crises in the past 30 days. No legislative votes, court rulings, or special counsel actions have gained traction to challenge his position, underscoring constitutional stability through 2029 barring extraordinary circumstances. Potential shifters include sudden scandals, verified health events, invocation of incapacity mechanisms, or unforeseen legal convictions with immediate removal implications, though historical precedents for early-term ousters remain rare. Upcoming congressional sessions pose minimal risk absent bipartisan consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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