US and Israeli forces continue near-daily drone, missile, and airstrikes on Iranian soil—targeting missile bases, nuclear facilities, air defenses, and military infrastructure—since the campaign's launch on February 28, yielding no full calendar day without qualifying action as of April 1, Iran Standard Time. President Trump's April 1 statements signaling a potential end to operations, amid NATO tensions over allied non-support, coincide with his April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face escalated strikes. Iranian ballistic missile barrages on US bases and Israeli sites, plus Houthi attacks, sustain retaliation risks, while March 28 Institute for the Study of War analysis highlights degraded Iranian launch capabilities. Traders monitor this balance for the first strike-free day amid absent ceasefire talks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$303,245 交易量
2026-03-31
March 30
<1%
4月15日
21%
4月30日
57%
5月31日
88%
6月30日
89%
$303,245 交易量
March 30
$25,448 交易量
<1%
4月15日
$24,819 交易量
21%
4月30日
$15,267 交易量
57%
5月31日
$8,678 交易量
88%
6月30日
$6,361 交易量
89%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue near-daily drone, missile, and airstrikes on Iranian soil—targeting missile bases, nuclear facilities, air defenses, and military infrastructure—since the campaign's launch on February 28, yielding no full calendar day without qualifying action as of April 1, Iran Standard Time. President Trump's April 1 statements signaling a potential end to operations, amid NATO tensions over allied non-support, coincide with his April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face escalated strikes. Iranian ballistic missile barrages on US bases and Israeli sites, plus Houthi attacks, sustain retaliation risks, while March 28 Institute for the Study of War analysis highlights degraded Iranian launch capabilities. Traders monitor this balance for the first strike-free day amid absent ceasefire talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
交易量
$303,245結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue near-daily drone, missile, and airstrikes on Iranian soil—targeting missile bases, nuclear facilities, air defenses, and military infrastructure—since the campaign's launch on February 28, yielding no full calendar day without qualifying action as of April 1, Iran Standard Time. President Trump's April 1 statements signaling a potential end to operations, amid NATO tensions over allied non-support, coincide with his April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face escalated strikes. Iranian ballistic missile barrages on US bases and Israeli sites, plus Houthi attacks, sustain retaliation risks, while March 28 Institute for the Study of War analysis highlights degraded Iranian launch capabilities. Traders monitor this balance for the first strike-free day amid absent ceasefire talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$303,245結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
US and Israeli forces continue near-daily drone, missile, and airstrikes on Iranian soil—targeting missile bases, nuclear facilities, air defenses, and military infrastructure—since the campaign's launch on February 28, yielding no full calendar day without qualifying action as of April 1, Iran Standard Time. President Trump's April 1 statements signaling a potential end to operations, amid NATO tensions over allied non-support, coincide with his April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face escalated strikes. Iranian ballistic missile barrages on US bases and Israeli sites, plus Houthi attacks, sustain retaliation risks, while March 28 Institute for the Study of War analysis highlights degraded Iranian launch capabilities. Traders monitor this balance for the first strike-free day amid absent ceasefire talks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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