Lebanon's parliament voted on March 9 to postpone the May parliamentary elections by two years to 2028, citing the intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict, anchoring trader consensus at low probabilities across all parties and reflecting deep uncertainty over whether a vote will occur. Lebanese Forces leads at 15% implied probability amid its early campaign launch and anti-Hezbollah positioning in a weakened post-war landscape, while Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party trails closely, buoyed by pro-Syria niches in the fragmented sectarian system of proportional representation. The race remains tight due to opposition disunity, Shia challenges to Amal-Hezbollah dominance, expatriate voting disputes, and absent polls; separation could arise from a postponement reversal, durable ceasefire, presidential appointment, or major coalition shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於黎巴嫩力量（LF） 15%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社會主義復興黨（巴斯黨） 7.8%
真主黨（Hezb） 2.6%
希望運動（Amal） 1.7%
$212,778 交易量
$212,778 交易量
May 31, 2026
黎巴嫩力量（LF）
15%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社會主義復興黨（巴斯黨）
8%
真主黨（Hezb）
3%
希望運動（Amal）
2%
塔卡多姆黨
2%
ReLebanon
1%
伊斯蘭慈善工程協會（ICPA）
1%
尊嚴運動（DM）
1%
亞美尼亞革命聯盟（ARF）
1%
卡塔埃布黨（Kataeb）
1%
進步社會黨（PSP）
1%
獨立運動（IM）
1%
自由愛國運動（FPM）
<1%
聯合黨（UP）
<1%
馬拉達運動（MM）
<1%
全國自由黨（NLP）
<1%
人民納賽爾主義組織（PNO）
<1%
Lana－社會民主黨（Lana）
<1%
瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani）
<1%
伊斯蘭團體（IG）
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
國家對話黨（NDP）
<1%
馬達黨（Mada）
<1%
黎巴嫩力量（LF） 15%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社會主義復興黨（巴斯黨） 7.8%
真主黨（Hezb） 2.6%
希望運動（Amal） 1.7%
$212,778 交易量
$212,778 交易量
May 31, 2026
黎巴嫩力量（LF）
$135,458 交易量
15%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社會主義復興黨（巴斯黨）
$2,967 交易量
8%
真主黨（Hezb）
$41,200 交易量
3%
希望運動（Amal）
$26,786 交易量
2%
塔卡多姆黨
$0 交易量
2%
ReLebanon
$1,764 交易量
1%
伊斯蘭慈善工程協會（ICPA）
$0 交易量
1%
尊嚴運動（DM）
$0 交易量
1%
亞美尼亞革命聯盟（ARF）
$4,602 交易量
1%
卡塔埃布黨（Kataeb）
$0 交易量
1%
進步社會黨（PSP）
$0 交易量
1%
獨立運動（IM）
$0 交易量
1%
自由愛國運動（FPM）
$0 交易量
<1%
聯合黨（UP）
$0 交易量
<1%
馬拉達運動（MM）
$0 交易量
<1%
全國自由黨（NLP）
$0 交易量
<1%
人民納賽爾主義組織（PNO）
$0 交易量
<1%
Lana－社會民主黨（Lana）
$0 交易量
<1%
瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani）
$0 交易量
<1%
伊斯蘭團體（IG）
$0 交易量
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
$0 交易量
<1%
國家對話黨（NDP）
$0 交易量
<1%
馬達黨（Mada）
$0 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament voted on March 9 to postpone the May parliamentary elections by two years to 2028, citing the intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict, anchoring trader consensus at low probabilities across all parties and reflecting deep uncertainty over whether a vote will occur. Lebanese Forces leads at 15% implied probability amid its early campaign launch and anti-Hezbollah positioning in a weakened post-war landscape, while Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party trails closely, buoyed by pro-Syria niches in the fragmented sectarian system of proportional representation. The race remains tight due to opposition disunity, Shia challenges to Amal-Hezbollah dominance, expatriate voting disputes, and absent polls; separation could arise from a postponement reversal, durable ceasefire, presidential appointment, or major coalition shifts.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
交易量
$212,778結束日期
May 31, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament voted on March 9 to postpone the May parliamentary elections by two years to 2028, citing the intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict, anchoring trader consensus at low probabilities across all parties and reflecting deep uncertainty over whether a vote will occur. Lebanese Forces leads at 15% implied probability amid its early campaign launch and anti-Hezbollah positioning in a weakened post-war landscape, while Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party trails closely, buoyed by pro-Syria niches in the fragmented sectarian system of proportional representation. The race remains tight due to opposition disunity, Shia challenges to Amal-Hezbollah dominance, expatriate voting disputes, and absent polls; separation could arise from a postponement reversal, durable ceasefire, presidential appointment, or major coalition shifts.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$212,778結束日期
May 31, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon's parliament voted on March 9 to postpone the May parliamentary elections by two years to 2028, citing the intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict, anchoring trader consensus at low probabilities across all parties and reflecting deep uncertainty over whether a vote will occur. Lebanese Forces leads at 15% implied probability amid its early campaign launch and anti-Hezbollah positioning in a weakened post-war landscape, while Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party trails closely, buoyed by pro-Syria niches in the fragmented sectarian system of proportional representation. The race remains tight due to opposition disunity, Shia challenges to Amal-Hezbollah dominance, expatriate voting disputes, and absent polls; separation could arise from a postponement reversal, durable ceasefire, presidential appointment, or major coalition shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions