Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a modest peak for the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.5% by March 31, reflecting post-election repricing on fiscal stimulus expectations under President Trump, which have lifted current yields to 4.35% from sub-3.9% lows in September. Elevated term premiums stem from anticipated deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually and tariff-driven inflation risks, tempering aggressive Fed rate cuts—now priced at just 40 basis points through March per fed funds futures. Key catalysts ahead include January 10 CPI release and the Fed's January 29-30 meeting, where sticky core inflation above 3% could propel yields toward 4.75%; conversely, recession signals might cap upside amid $9 trillion in maturing debt.