Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to consecutive pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky core PCE inflation near 3% and resilient labor markets. The updated dot plot penciled in just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year, as an oil price shock from geopolitical tensions has elevated headline inflation nowcasts toward 4%, tempering near-term easing expectations. Recent February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year provided little relief, with traders eyeing the upcoming March nonfarm payrolls and April 28-29 FOMC for confirmation of this patient stance, while a slim 9% prices a June cut.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動 88%
暫停–暫停–降息 7%
其他 4.8%
暫停—降息—降息 1.3%
$719,046 交易量
$719,046 交易量
2026-06-17
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動
88%
暫停–暫停–降息
7%
其他
5%
暫停—降息—降息
1%
暫停－降息－暫停
1%
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動 88%
暫停–暫停–降息 7%
其他 4.8%
暫停—降息—降息 1.3%
$719,046 交易量
$719,046 交易量
2026-06-17
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動
$21,008 交易量
88%
暫停–暫停–降息
$11,277 交易量
7%
其他
$211,054 交易量
5%
暫停—降息—降息
$345,747 交易量
1%
暫停－降息－暫停
$129,960 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to consecutive pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky core PCE inflation near 3% and resilient labor markets. The updated dot plot penciled in just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year, as an oil price shock from geopolitical tensions has elevated headline inflation nowcasts toward 4%, tempering near-term easing expectations. Recent February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year provided little relief, with traders eyeing the upcoming March nonfarm payrolls and April 28-29 FOMC for confirmation of this patient stance, while a slim 9% prices a June cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$719,046結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to consecutive pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky core PCE inflation near 3% and resilient labor markets. The updated dot plot penciled in just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year, as an oil price shock from geopolitical tensions has elevated headline inflation nowcasts toward 4%, tempering near-term easing expectations. Recent February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year provided little relief, with traders eyeing the upcoming March nonfarm payrolls and April 28-29 FOMC for confirmation of this patient stance, while a slim 9% prices a June cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$719,046結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to consecutive pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky core PCE inflation near 3% and resilient labor markets. The updated dot plot penciled in just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year, as an oil price shock from geopolitical tensions has elevated headline inflation nowcasts toward 4%, tempering near-term easing expectations. Recent February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year provided little relief, with traders eyeing the upcoming March nonfarm payrolls and April 28-29 FOMC for confirmation of this patient stance, while a slim 9% prices a June cut.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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