Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's net worth falling in the 640-650 billion range as of March 31, 2026, driven by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index's authoritative daily update confirming $644 billion—reflecting a $11.7 billion (1.8%) single-day gain and $24.2 billion year-to-date increase. This positioning stems from Tesla's market cap hitting $1.39 trillion, bolstering Musk's ~11% stake plus 304 million exercisable options, alongside his 44% holding in the SpaceX-xAI combined entity valued at $1.03 trillion post-February merger, offset by modest liabilities like pledged shares. While near-certain, rare index revisions for private asset discounts or loan adjustments could theoretically challenge resolution, though traders price negligible risk.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於6400-6500億 100.0%
少於6400億 <1%
6500-6600億 <1%
6600-6700億 <1%
$1,270,803 交易量
$1,270,803 交易量
少於6400億
否
6400-6500億
是
6500-6600億
否
6600-6700億
否
6,700-6,800億
否
6800億至6900億
否
6900億-7000億
否
7,000億-7,100億
否
7100億+
否
6400-6500億 100.0%
少於6400億 <1%
6500-6600億 <1%
6600-6700億 <1%
$1,270,803 交易量
$1,270,803 交易量
少於6400億
否
6400-6500億
是
6500-6600億
否
6600-6700億
否
6,700-6,800億
否
6800億至6900億
否
6900億-7000億
否
7,000億-7,100億
否
7100億+
否
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
市場開放時間: Feb 25, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's net worth falling in the 640-650 billion range as of March 31, 2026, driven by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index's authoritative daily update confirming $644 billion—reflecting a $11.7 billion (1.8%) single-day gain and $24.2 billion year-to-date increase. This positioning stems from Tesla's market cap hitting $1.39 trillion, bolstering Musk's ~11% stake plus 304 million exercisable options, alongside his 44% holding in the SpaceX-xAI combined entity valued at $1.03 trillion post-February merger, offset by modest liabilities like pledged shares. While near-certain, rare index revisions for private asset discounts or loan adjustments could theoretically challenge resolution, though traders price negligible risk.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions