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選舉·世界選舉

2028年民主黨總統提名人

Market icon
選舉·世界選舉

2028年民主黨總統提名人

加文·紐森 24.3%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯 8.2%

喬恩·奧索夫 5.8%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 4.3%

Polymarket

$928,860,719 交易量

加文·紐森 24.3%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯 8.2%

喬恩·奧索夫 5.8%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 4.3%

Polymarket

$928,860,719 交易量

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加文·紐森

$16,308,897 交易量

24%

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亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯

$6,045,639 交易量

8%

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喬恩·奧索夫

$5,740,362 交易量

6%

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卡馬拉·哈里斯

$8,582,403 交易量

4%

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皮特·布塔朱吉

$9,344,428 交易量

4%

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喬什·夏皮羅

$5,792,677 交易量

4%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,543,216 交易量

2%

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詹姆斯·塔拉里科

$3,395,976 交易量

2%

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喬恩·斯圖爾特

$9,666,671 交易量

2%

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安迪·貝希爾

$5,998,212 交易量

2%

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馬克·凱利

$10,809,214 交易量

2%

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魯本·加列戈

$3,502,715 交易量

2%

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羅·卡納

$4,116,809 交易量

2%

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韋斯·摩爾

$13,411,076 交易量

2%

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格雷琴·惠特默

$7,081,036 交易量

1%

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歐普拉·溫芙蕾

$42,861,267 交易量

1%

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米歇爾·奧巴馬

$21,311,162 交易量

1%

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科里·布克

$20,710,552 交易量

1%

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拉姆·伊曼紐爾

$10,997,985 交易量

1%

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馬克·庫班

$17,512,858 交易量

1%

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巨石強森

$8,604,384 交易量

1%

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史蒂芬·A·史密斯

$13,608,507 交易量

1%

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克里斯·墨菲

$11,329,261 交易量

1%

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約翰·費特曼

$16,699,579 交易量

1%

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勒布朗·詹姆斯

$38,338,573 交易量

1%

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吉娜·雷蒙多

$27,148,008 交易量

1%

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莉茲·切尼

$31,956,802 交易量

1%

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佐赫蘭·曼達尼

$32,875,001 交易量

1%

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MrBeast

$35,042,292 交易量

1%

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羅伊·庫珀

$24,522,181 交易量

1%

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切爾西·克林頓

$44,282,688 交易量

1%

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喬治·克魯尼

$36,934,487 交易量

1%

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金·卡戴珊

$32,662,786 交易量

1%

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賈里德·波利斯

$19,116,857 交易量

1%

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希拉蕊·柯林頓

$37,229,130 交易量

1%

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巴拉克·歐巴馬

$25,034,222 交易量

1%

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蒂姆·瓦爾茲

$36,359,034 交易量

1%

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安德魯·楊

$41,826,460 交易量

1%

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菲爾·墨菲

$33,305,790 交易量

1%

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亨特·拜登

$31,260,826 交易量

1%

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賈思敏·克羅克特

$22,224,949 交易量

1%

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拉斐爾·沃諾克

$24,110,210 交易量

1%

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伯尼·桑德斯

$38,449,236 交易量

1%

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貝托·奧羅克

$31,209,254 交易量

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.4% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, propelled by a March 12 Politico poll showing him ahead of Kamala Harris by 14 points among California Democrats and a recent ABC10 survey confirming his dominance in the early field there. His national profile, bolstered by a book tour in early primary states like New Hampshire, differentiates him from rivals through executive experience and fundraising prowess. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.2% on progressive grassroots appeal, while Jon Ossoff's 5.7% reflects Georgia swing-state potential. With the field wide open post-2024, 2026 midterms, early polls, and party endorsements could consolidate support, though high uncertainty persists in this long-lead primary contest.

California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.4% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, propelled by a March 12 Politico poll showing him ahead of Kamala Harris by 14 points among California Democrats and a recent ABC10 survey confirming his dominance in the early field there. His national profile, bolstered by a book tour in early primary states like New Hampshire, differentiates him from rivals through executive experience and fundraising prowess. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.2% on progressive grassroots appeal, while Jon Ossoff's 5.7% reflects Georgia swing-state potential. With the field wide open post-2024, 2026 midterms, early polls, and party endorsements could consolidate support, though high uncertainty persists in this long-lead primary contest.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.4% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, propelled by a March 12 Politico poll showing him ahead of Kamala Harris by 14 points among California Democrats and a recent ABC10 survey confirming his dominance in the early field there. His national profile, bolstered by a book tour in early primary states like New Hampshire, differentiates him from rivals through executive experience and fundraising prowess. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.2% on progressive grassroots appeal, while Jon Ossoff's 5.7% reflects Georgia swing-state potential. With the field wide open post-2024, 2026 midterms, early polls, and party endorsements could consolidate support, though high uncertainty persists in this long-lead primary contest.

California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.4% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, propelled by a March 12 Politico poll showing him ahead of Kamala Harris by 14 points among California Democrats and a recent ABC10 survey confirming his dominance in the early field there. His national profile, bolstered by a book tour in early primary states like New Hampshire, differentiates him from rivals through executive experience and fundraising prowess. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.2% on progressive grassroots appeal, while Jon Ossoff's 5.7% reflects Georgia swing-state potential. With the field wide open post-2024, 2026 midterms, early polls, and party endorsements could consolidate support, though high uncertainty persists in this long-lead primary contest.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2028年民主黨總統提名人" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "加文·紐森" at 24%, followed by "亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2028年民主黨總統提名人" has generated $928.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2028年民主黨總統提名人," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2028年民主黨總統提名人" is "加文·紐森" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2028年民主黨總統提名人" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.