Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% chance of Canada's population declining this year, driven by a sharp deceleration in net international migration after Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced cuts to permanent resident targets—dropping to 395,000 in 2025 from 500,000—and caps on study permits and temporary foreign workers. Statistics Canada data released October 21 showed Q2 2024 quarterly growth at just 0.2%, the slowest in decades, with non-permanent residents falling for the first time quarterly amid reduced inflows and some outflows. Though year-to-date growth remains positive at 2.2% through July 1, traders anticipate second-half declines from policy tightening and housing pressures could tip the annual change negative, ahead of the next population estimate in January 2025.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Up
Up
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% chance of Canada's population declining this year, driven by a sharp deceleration in net international migration after Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced cuts to permanent resident targets—dropping to 395,000 in 2025 from 500,000—and caps on study permits and temporary foreign workers. Statistics Canada data released October 21 showed Q2 2024 quarterly growth at just 0.2%, the slowest in decades, with non-permanent residents falling for the first time quarterly amid reduced inflows and some outflows. Though year-to-date growth remains positive at 2.2% through July 1, traders anticipate second-half declines from policy tightening and housing pressures could tip the annual change negative, ahead of the next population estimate in January 2025.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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