Trader consensus prices Europe at 70.5% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by UEFA's 16 direct slots filled with powerhouses like Spain, France, England, Germany, Portugal, and Netherlands—eight of ESPN's top 10 squads—bolstered by late March playoff triumphs for Bosnia and Herzegovina over Italy on penalties, Sweden's 3-2 win versus Poland, Czechia's penalty shootout against Denmark, and Türkiye's advancement. South America's 22.5% reflects CONMEBOL's six qualifiers including defending champions Argentina and Brazil, whose elite talent keeps them competitive despite shallower depth. Lower odds for Africa (10 teams like Morocco, Senegal), Asia (9 including Japan, South Korea), North America (hosts USA, Mexico, Canada plus Panama), and Oceania (New Zealand) stem from no top-10 contenders and historical knockout struggles, with inter-confederation playoff wins by DR Congo and Iraq providing minor boosts but not shifting dominance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於歐洲 71%
南美洲 23%
非洲 3.3%
北美 2.5%
$1,517,304 交易量
$1,517,304 交易量
歐洲
71%
南美洲
23%
非洲
3%
北美
2%
亞洲
2%
大洋洲
<1%
歐洲 71%
南美洲 23%
非洲 3.3%
北美 2.5%
$1,517,304 交易量
$1,517,304 交易量
歐洲
71%
南美洲
23%
非洲
3%
北美
2%
亞洲
2%
大洋洲
<1%
For example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent).
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/) and the World Population Review; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Dec 8, 2025, 3:32 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...For example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent).
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/) and the World Population Review; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Europe at 70.5% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by UEFA's 16 direct slots filled with powerhouses like Spain, France, England, Germany, Portugal, and Netherlands—eight of ESPN's top 10 squads—bolstered by late March playoff triumphs for Bosnia and Herzegovina over Italy on penalties, Sweden's 3-2 win versus Poland, Czechia's penalty shootout against Denmark, and Türkiye's advancement. South America's 22.5% reflects CONMEBOL's six qualifiers including defending champions Argentina and Brazil, whose elite talent keeps them competitive despite shallower depth. Lower odds for Africa (10 teams like Morocco, Senegal), Asia (9 including Japan, South Korea), North America (hosts USA, Mexico, Canada plus Panama), and Oceania (New Zealand) stem from no top-10 contenders and historical knockout struggles, with inter-confederation playoff wins by DR Congo and Iraq providing minor boosts but not shifting dominance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions