Polymarket traders are pricing a peak 10-year Treasury yield around 4.5% by March 31, with implied probabilities favoring levels above 4.3% at 65%, reflecting sentiment hardened by recent hotter-than-expected CPI data (3.0% YoY in January) and blockbuster January payrolls adding 353,000 jobs. Current yield stands at 4.28% after climbing 25bps since Fed's January rate cut, driven by rising term premiums amid fiscal deficit concerns and sticky core inflation. Key catalysts ahead include February 13 CPI release, March 18-19 FOMC meeting with updated dot plots, and advance Q1 GDP—any upside surprise could push yields toward 4.6%, while softer data might cap at 4.2%, underscoring traders' bets on resilient U.S. growth offsetting Fed easing.