Incumbent Brad Sherman holds a commanding position in California's 32nd congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+14 or higher and consistent results in recent presidential and statewide races. Sherman, serving since 2003 and now seeking his 16th term, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a clear lead over multiple Democratic challengers, while Republican Larry Thompson, an 81-year-old film producer with limited fundraising, finished second. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Thompson's low-profile campaign and the district's partisan composition leave little room for an upset absent major late developments.