Incumbent Rep. Brad Sherman's dominant position in California's solidly Democratic 32nd Congressional District (Cook PVI D+17) underpins trader consensus implying a 92.5% probability of a Democratic House winner, reflecting the district's consistent 65%+ Democratic general election margins and Sherman's $4.8 million cash-on-hand edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Primary challengers like Democrat Jake Levine trail in resources despite competitive fundraising, while Republican Larry Thompson lags far behind with under $16,000 raised after a 33-point loss in 2024. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days. An upset would require a Democratic scandal, nominee health issues, or a national GOP wave to overcome the partisan and incumbency barriers.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-32 House Election Winner
CA-32 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,523 ปริมาณ
93%
Republican Party
$3,423 ปริมาณ
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Brad Sherman's dominant position in California's solidly Democratic 32nd Congressional District (Cook PVI D+17) underpins trader consensus implying a 92.5% probability of a Democratic House winner, reflecting the district's consistent 65%+ Democratic general election margins and Sherman's $4.8 million cash-on-hand edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Primary challengers like Democrat Jake Levine trail in resources despite competitive fundraising, while Republican Larry Thompson lags far behind with under $16,000 raised after a 33-point loss in 2024. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days. An upset would require a Democratic scandal, nominee health issues, or a national GOP wave to overcome the partisan and incumbency barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,945วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Brad Sherman's dominant position in California's solidly Democratic 32nd Congressional District (Cook PVI D+17) underpins trader consensus implying a 92.5% probability of a Democratic House winner, reflecting the district's consistent 65%+ Democratic general election margins and Sherman's $4.8 million cash-on-hand edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Primary challengers like Democrat Jake Levine trail in resources despite competitive fundraising, while Republican Larry Thompson lags far behind with under $16,000 raised after a 33-point loss in 2024. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days. An upset would require a Democratic scandal, nominee health issues, or a national GOP wave to overcome the partisan and incumbency barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,945วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Brad Sherman's dominant position in California's solidly Democratic 32nd Congressional District (Cook PVI D+17) underpins trader consensus implying a 92.5% probability of a Democratic House winner, reflecting the district's consistent 65%+ Democratic general election margins and Sherman's $4.8 million cash-on-hand edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Primary challengers like Democrat Jake Levine trail in resources despite competitive fundraising, while Republican Larry Thompson lags far behind with under $16,000 raised after a 33-point loss in 2024. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days. An upset would require a Democratic scandal, nominee health issues, or a national GOP wave to overcome the partisan and incumbency barriers.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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