**Brian Poindexter (D) holds an 80.5% implied probability in the OH-07 House race due primarily to personal allegations against incumbent Republican Max Miller that have eroded his support in a previously Republican-leaning district.** Multiple forecasters shifted the contest to toss-up status after reports of domestic abuse claims from Miller’s ex-wife surfaced, prompting some Republican distancing and quiet pressure on the incumbent. Recent polling averages show Poindexter, a union ironworker and Brook Park city councilman who won a crowded Democratic primary, ahead by roughly six points, with individual surveys placing him in the low-to-mid 40s against Miller. Poindexter’s campaign emphasizes affordability, constituent services, and labor endorsements, while Miller retains a fundraising edge. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with late developments in this competitive suburban and rural Ohio seat capable of shifting trader consensus.