**Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III leads the Alaska at-large House race under the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system, which advanced him alongside independent Bill Hill, Democrat Eric Hafner, and Libertarian Jim McDermott after the August 18 primary.** Begich captured 44.6% in the primary, well ahead of Hill’s 32.5%, reflecting strong name recognition from a prominent Alaska political family, incumbency advantages, and consistent fundraising superiority. Hill, a first-time independent candidate and former Bristol Bay educator and fisherman, has consolidated some Democratic support after party-aligned withdrawals and emphasizes affordability issues, yet trails in recent polling and faces structural headwinds in a district rated Likely Republican by multiple forecasters. The low probabilities assigned to Democratic and Libertarian options align with Hafner’s limited primary support and McDermott’s eighth-place finish, leaving little room for late shifts absent major developments before the November 3 general election.