Incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin (D) dominates the CA-15 House race with trader consensus implying a 94.5% Democratic Party win probability, anchored by the district's D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and his prior 73% general election victory. Mullin's $678,000 fundraising haul through March dwarfs challengers like Republicans Charles Hoelter and Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Recent visibility from Mullin's hospital-to-Capitol trek to vote against the GOP budget proposal has bolstered his incumbency advantage in this Bay Area stronghold, where Kamala Harris won 72% in 2024. Upsets would demand a primary loss, personal scandal, health crisis, or seismic national Republican midterm wave.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-15 House Election Winner
CA-15 House Election Winner
$98,998 ปริมาณ
$98,998 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$98,998 ปริมาณ
$98,998 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$80,024 ปริมาณ
95%
Republican Party
$18,973 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin (D) dominates the CA-15 House race with trader consensus implying a 94.5% Democratic Party win probability, anchored by the district's D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and his prior 73% general election victory. Mullin's $678,000 fundraising haul through March dwarfs challengers like Republicans Charles Hoelter and Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Recent visibility from Mullin's hospital-to-Capitol trek to vote against the GOP budget proposal has bolstered his incumbency advantage in this Bay Area stronghold, where Kamala Harris won 72% in 2024. Upsets would demand a primary loss, personal scandal, health crisis, or seismic national Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$98,998วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin (D) dominates the CA-15 House race with trader consensus implying a 94.5% Democratic Party win probability, anchored by the district's D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and his prior 73% general election victory. Mullin's $678,000 fundraising haul through March dwarfs challengers like Republicans Charles Hoelter and Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Recent visibility from Mullin's hospital-to-Capitol trek to vote against the GOP budget proposal has bolstered his incumbency advantage in this Bay Area stronghold, where Kamala Harris won 72% in 2024. Upsets would demand a primary loss, personal scandal, health crisis, or seismic national Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$98,998วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin (D) dominates the CA-15 House race with trader consensus implying a 94.5% Democratic Party win probability, anchored by the district's D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and his prior 73% general election victory. Mullin's $678,000 fundraising haul through March dwarfs challengers like Republicans Charles Hoelter and Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Recent visibility from Mullin's hospital-to-Capitol trek to vote against the GOP budget proposal has bolstered his incumbency advantage in this Bay Area stronghold, where Kamala Harris won 72% in 2024. Upsets would demand a primary loss, personal scandal, health crisis, or seismic national Republican midterm wave.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย