California's 15th Congressional District (CA-15), rated Solid Democratic with a D+26 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory, bolstered by incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin's dominant fundraising ($678,000 receipts through March) amid a weak challenger field. The June 2 top-two primary features underfunded Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar—recently criticizing party priorities—as well as Republican Charles Hoelter and no-party-preference Jim Garrity, positioning Mullin to advance alongside another Democrat for the November 3 general. Absent polling shows upset risk. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary GOP qualifier, Mullin scandal, or national Republican wave overwhelming the district's entrenched blue lean and historical safe-seat patterns.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-15 House Election Winner
CA-15 House Election Winner
$114,280 ปริมาณ
$114,280 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$114,280 ปริมาณ
$114,280 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$92,550 ปริมาณ
95%
Republican Party
$21,729 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 15th Congressional District (CA-15), rated Solid Democratic with a D+26 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory, bolstered by incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin's dominant fundraising ($678,000 receipts through March) amid a weak challenger field. The June 2 top-two primary features underfunded Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar—recently criticizing party priorities—as well as Republican Charles Hoelter and no-party-preference Jim Garrity, positioning Mullin to advance alongside another Democrat for the November 3 general. Absent polling shows upset risk. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary GOP qualifier, Mullin scandal, or national Republican wave overwhelming the district's entrenched blue lean and historical safe-seat patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$114,280วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 15th Congressional District (CA-15), rated Solid Democratic with a D+26 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory, bolstered by incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin's dominant fundraising ($678,000 receipts through March) amid a weak challenger field. The June 2 top-two primary features underfunded Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar—recently criticizing party priorities—as well as Republican Charles Hoelter and no-party-preference Jim Garrity, positioning Mullin to advance alongside another Democrat for the November 3 general. Absent polling shows upset risk. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary GOP qualifier, Mullin scandal, or national Republican wave overwhelming the district's entrenched blue lean and historical safe-seat patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$114,280วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 15th Congressional District (CA-15), rated Solid Democratic with a D+26 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory, bolstered by incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin's dominant fundraising ($678,000 receipts through March) amid a weak challenger field. The June 2 top-two primary features underfunded Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar—recently criticizing party priorities—as well as Republican Charles Hoelter and no-party-preference Jim Garrity, positioning Mullin to advance alongside another Democrat for the November 3 general. Absent polling shows upset risk. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary GOP qualifier, Mullin scandal, or national Republican wave overwhelming the district's entrenched blue lean and historical safe-seat patterns.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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