Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91% implied probability for California's 39th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Mark Takano's strong track record—winning 56.7% in the 2024 general election and 55.5% in its top-two primary—bolstered by a D+7 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Kamala Harris's 53%-43% district margin in 2024 presidential voting, and mid-decade redistricting that reinforced Democratic leans. With the June 2, 2026, top-two primary approaching, Takano holds a fundraising edge ($649,000 raised through March) over lone challenger Steve Manos (R), as highlighted in recent candidate questionnaires. Scenarios challenging this include a surprise primary upset, Takano scandal, or robust Republican midterm wave boosting GOP turnout in Riverside County battlegrounds like Moreno Valley.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-39 House Election Winner
CA-39 House Election Winner
$32,791 ปริมาณ
$32,791 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
$32,791 ปริมาณ
$32,791 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$26,629 ปริมาณ
92%
Republican Party
$6,162 ปริมาณ
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91% implied probability for California's 39th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Mark Takano's strong track record—winning 56.7% in the 2024 general election and 55.5% in its top-two primary—bolstered by a D+7 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Kamala Harris's 53%-43% district margin in 2024 presidential voting, and mid-decade redistricting that reinforced Democratic leans. With the June 2, 2026, top-two primary approaching, Takano holds a fundraising edge ($649,000 raised through March) over lone challenger Steve Manos (R), as highlighted in recent candidate questionnaires. Scenarios challenging this include a surprise primary upset, Takano scandal, or robust Republican midterm wave boosting GOP turnout in Riverside County battlegrounds like Moreno Valley.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$32,791วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91% implied probability for California's 39th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Mark Takano's strong track record—winning 56.7% in the 2024 general election and 55.5% in its top-two primary—bolstered by a D+7 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Kamala Harris's 53%-43% district margin in 2024 presidential voting, and mid-decade redistricting that reinforced Democratic leans. With the June 2, 2026, top-two primary approaching, Takano holds a fundraising edge ($649,000 raised through March) over lone challenger Steve Manos (R), as highlighted in recent candidate questionnaires. Scenarios challenging this include a surprise primary upset, Takano scandal, or robust Republican midterm wave boosting GOP turnout in Riverside County battlegrounds like Moreno Valley.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$32,791วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91% implied probability for California's 39th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Mark Takano's strong track record—winning 56.7% in the 2024 general election and 55.5% in its top-two primary—bolstered by a D+7 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Kamala Harris's 53%-43% district margin in 2024 presidential voting, and mid-decade redistricting that reinforced Democratic leans. With the June 2, 2026, top-two primary approaching, Takano holds a fundraising edge ($649,000 raised through March) over lone challenger Steve Manos (R), as highlighted in recent candidate questionnaires. Scenarios challenging this include a surprise primary upset, Takano scandal, or robust Republican midterm wave boosting GOP turnout in Riverside County battlegrounds like Moreno Valley.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย