California's 14th Congressional District, a deep-blue seat with a Harris +36 margin in 2024, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 92% implied probability for the November 2026 general election winner, reflecting the district's consistent Democratic dominance and weak Republican field led by lone challenger Wendy Huang. Recent resignation of incumbent Rep. Eric Swalwell on April 13 amid misconduct allegations opened the race, but a crowded nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 features strong Democratic contenders including Aisha Wahab, Rakhi Israni (who raised $2 million), Melissa Hernandez, Carin Elam, and Matt Ortega, positioning two Democrats to likely advance. A parallel special election primary on June 16 precedes the August 18 general for the interim vacancy. GOP upset would require a surprise primary advancement, Democratic scandals, or national midterm wave, though historical base rates in D+30+ districts make this improbable.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-14 House Election Winner
CA-14 House Election Winner
$24,921 ปริมาณ
$24,921 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
$24,921 ปริมาณ
$24,921 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,878 ปริมาณ
92%
Republican Party
$17,044 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th Congressional District, a deep-blue seat with a Harris +36 margin in 2024, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 92% implied probability for the November 2026 general election winner, reflecting the district's consistent Democratic dominance and weak Republican field led by lone challenger Wendy Huang. Recent resignation of incumbent Rep. Eric Swalwell on April 13 amid misconduct allegations opened the race, but a crowded nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 features strong Democratic contenders including Aisha Wahab, Rakhi Israni (who raised $2 million), Melissa Hernandez, Carin Elam, and Matt Ortega, positioning two Democrats to likely advance. A parallel special election primary on June 16 precedes the August 18 general for the interim vacancy. GOP upset would require a surprise primary advancement, Democratic scandals, or national midterm wave, though historical base rates in D+30+ districts make this improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,921วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th Congressional District, a deep-blue seat with a Harris +36 margin in 2024, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 92% implied probability for the November 2026 general election winner, reflecting the district's consistent Democratic dominance and weak Republican field led by lone challenger Wendy Huang. Recent resignation of incumbent Rep. Eric Swalwell on April 13 amid misconduct allegations opened the race, but a crowded nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 features strong Democratic contenders including Aisha Wahab, Rakhi Israni (who raised $2 million), Melissa Hernandez, Carin Elam, and Matt Ortega, positioning two Democrats to likely advance. A parallel special election primary on June 16 precedes the August 18 general for the interim vacancy. GOP upset would require a surprise primary advancement, Democratic scandals, or national midterm wave, though historical base rates in D+30+ districts make this improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,921วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th Congressional District, a deep-blue seat with a Harris +36 margin in 2024, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 92% implied probability for the November 2026 general election winner, reflecting the district's consistent Democratic dominance and weak Republican field led by lone challenger Wendy Huang. Recent resignation of incumbent Rep. Eric Swalwell on April 13 amid misconduct allegations opened the race, but a crowded nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 features strong Democratic contenders including Aisha Wahab, Rakhi Israni (who raised $2 million), Melissa Hernandez, Carin Elam, and Matt Ortega, positioning two Democrats to likely advance. A parallel special election primary on June 16 precedes the August 18 general for the interim vacancy. GOP upset would require a surprise primary advancement, Democratic scandals, or national midterm wave, though historical base rates in D+30+ districts make this improbable.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย