Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability to win Montana's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and incumbent Rep. Troy Downing's commanding 65.7% victory in 2024. Eastern Montana's conservative rural base and lack of recent polls showing Democratic viability reinforce this positioning, with no major shifts in the past 30 days. Recent Democratic primary turbulence—State Sen. Jonathan Windy Boy's brief campaign suspension amid resurfaced 2018 sexual misconduct allegations before resuming on May 6—has further dimmed challenger prospects ahead of the June 2 primaries. While odds reflect structural Republican dominance, disruptions like a weakened GOP nominee, scandals targeting Downing, or national midterm waves could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMT-02 House Election Winner
MT-02 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,411 ปริมาณ
93%
Democratic Party
$2,914 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability to win Montana's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and incumbent Rep. Troy Downing's commanding 65.7% victory in 2024. Eastern Montana's conservative rural base and lack of recent polls showing Democratic viability reinforce this positioning, with no major shifts in the past 30 days. Recent Democratic primary turbulence—State Sen. Jonathan Windy Boy's brief campaign suspension amid resurfaced 2018 sexual misconduct allegations before resuming on May 6—has further dimmed challenger prospects ahead of the June 2 primaries. While odds reflect structural Republican dominance, disruptions like a weakened GOP nominee, scandals targeting Downing, or national midterm waves could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,324วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability to win Montana's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and incumbent Rep. Troy Downing's commanding 65.7% victory in 2024. Eastern Montana's conservative rural base and lack of recent polls showing Democratic viability reinforce this positioning, with no major shifts in the past 30 days. Recent Democratic primary turbulence—State Sen. Jonathan Windy Boy's brief campaign suspension amid resurfaced 2018 sexual misconduct allegations before resuming on May 6—has further dimmed challenger prospects ahead of the June 2 primaries. While odds reflect structural Republican dominance, disruptions like a weakened GOP nominee, scandals targeting Downing, or national midterm waves could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,324วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability to win Montana's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and incumbent Rep. Troy Downing's commanding 65.7% victory in 2024. Eastern Montana's conservative rural base and lack of recent polls showing Democratic viability reinforce this positioning, with no major shifts in the past 30 days. Recent Democratic primary turbulence—State Sen. Jonathan Windy Boy's brief campaign suspension amid resurfaced 2018 sexual misconduct allegations before resuming on May 6—has further dimmed challenger prospects ahead of the June 2 primaries. While odds reflect structural Republican dominance, disruptions like a weakened GOP nominee, scandals targeting Downing, or national midterm waves could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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