Redistricting after Supreme Court rulings on Alabama's congressional map shifted the 2nd District to an R+7 partisan lean, with Donald Trump carrying the new lines by 14 points in 2024. This structural change underpins trader consensus favoring Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques at 70.5% over Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures at 29.5%. Recent internal polls show a statistical tie, reflecting Figures' incumbency and Democratic turnout efforts in areas like Montgomery, yet national Republican support—including a Trump endorsement for Marques—bolsters the GOP edge. Campaign activity in October centers on mutual attacks over taxes, stock trading votes, and debate participation, with Democrats outspending on ads nearly 2-to-1 ahead of the November 3 general election.