Alberta traders heavily favor "No" at 92.3% implied probability due to the absence of any official provincial government plans for a 2026 independence referendum, with Premier Danielle Smith repeatedly affirming commitment to autonomy within Canada via the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act rather than separation. Recent polls, including Angus Reid surveys from mid-2024, show only 25-35% public support for independence amid ongoing tensions over federal energy policies and equalization payments, far short of a viable threshold. No major party endorses secession, and constitutional hurdles require federal negotiations, reinforcing trader consensus that no such vote will materialize despite fringe separatist campaigns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Да
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Alberta traders heavily favor "No" at 92.3% implied probability due to the absence of any official provincial government plans for a 2026 independence referendum, with Premier Danielle Smith repeatedly affirming commitment to autonomy within Canada via the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act rather than separation. Recent polls, including Angus Reid surveys from mid-2024, show only 25-35% public support for independence amid ongoing tensions over federal energy policies and equalization payments, far short of a viable threshold. No major party endorses secession, and constitutional hurdles require federal negotiations, reinforcing trader consensus that no such vote will materialize despite fringe separatist campaigns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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