Traders assign a 95.7% probability that Alberta will not join the United States by the end of 2026 because the province faces insurmountable constitutional, legal, and political barriers to any transfer of sovereignty. Alberta separatism remains a fringe movement, with recent polls showing only about 16% committed support for independence and even lower figures—around 17-22%—for joining the United States as a state or territory. Early 2026 meetings between some separatist representatives and U.S. officials produced no commitments or policy shifts, while Canadian leaders, including Premier Danielle Smith, have stressed respect for federal sovereignty and noted that the vast majority of Albertans oppose U.S. statehood. First Nations treaty rights add further obstacles, and any path would require approvals from multiple Canadian governments, the U.S. Congress, and a binding referendum that current sentiment suggests would fail. Late developments such as a successful independence vote or major diplomatic reversal remain possible but face steep procedural and popular hurdles before December 31, 2026.