In Ohio's 2026 special U.S. Senate race—sparked by J.D. Vance's vice presidency—trader consensus gives Democrats a 54% implied probability over Republicans at 44.5%, mirroring tight recent polls between appointed GOP incumbent Jon Husted and challenger Sherrod Brown. Mid-March surveys like Quantus Insights (Husted 46%-44%) and earlier EMC Research (Brown 51%-47%) highlight volatility in this battleground state, where GOP presidential dominance clashes with Brown's enduring appeal to union voters and independents from his prior tenure. The race stays neck-and-neck due to balanced turnout models and fundraising parity; separation may come from May primaries, debates, economic data, or midterm backlash against the administration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Сенат штата Огайо
Победитель выборов в Сенат штата Огайо
$60,935 Объем
$60,935 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Демократ
54%
Республиканцы
45%
$60,935 Объем
$60,935 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Демократ
$34,401 Объем
54%
Республиканцы
$26,534 Объем
45%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.In Ohio's 2026 special U.S. Senate race—sparked by J.D. Vance's vice presidency—trader consensus gives Democrats a 54% implied probability over Republicans at 44.5%, mirroring tight recent polls between appointed GOP incumbent Jon Husted and challenger Sherrod Brown. Mid-March surveys like Quantus Insights (Husted 46%-44%) and earlier EMC Research (Brown 51%-47%) highlight volatility in this battleground state, where GOP presidential dominance clashes with Brown's enduring appeal to union voters and independents from his prior tenure. The race stays neck-and-neck due to balanced turnout models and fundraising parity; separation may come from May primaries, debates, economic data, or midterm backlash against the administration.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ET
Объем
$60,935Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.In Ohio's 2026 special U.S. Senate race—sparked by J.D. Vance's vice presidency—trader consensus gives Democrats a 54% implied probability over Republicans at 44.5%, mirroring tight recent polls between appointed GOP incumbent Jon Husted and challenger Sherrod Brown. Mid-March surveys like Quantus Insights (Husted 46%-44%) and earlier EMC Research (Brown 51%-47%) highlight volatility in this battleground state, where GOP presidential dominance clashes with Brown's enduring appeal to union voters and independents from his prior tenure. The race stays neck-and-neck due to balanced turnout models and fundraising parity; separation may come from May primaries, debates, economic data, or midterm backlash against the administration.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$60,935Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Ohio's 2026 special U.S. Senate race—sparked by J.D. Vance's vice presidency—trader consensus gives Democrats a 54% implied probability over Republicans at 44.5%, mirroring tight recent polls between appointed GOP incumbent Jon Husted and challenger Sherrod Brown. Mid-March surveys like Quantus Insights (Husted 46%-44%) and earlier EMC Research (Brown 51%-47%) highlight volatility in this battleground state, where GOP presidential dominance clashes with Brown's enduring appeal to union voters and independents from his prior tenure. The race stays neck-and-neck due to balanced turnout models and fundraising parity; separation may come from May primaries, debates, economic data, or midterm backlash against the administration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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