Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson dominates trader consensus at near-certainty to advance from California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, 2026, buoyed by his 28-year tenure, Democratic Party of California endorsement, and recent Sacramento Bee backing, while challenger Democrat Eric Jones follows closely on strong fundraising exceeding $3.2 million and progressive Our Revolution support. Fragmented Republican field—six contenders including Sharon Brown, L. John MacKenzie, and others—dilutes GOP votes under the top-two system, historically favoring one Democrat and one Republican but here tilting toward an all-Democrat matchup amid post-redistricting Democratic lean. Article One PAC's $30,000 infusion to Thompson last week underscores intensifying intra-party battle; ballots are mailed with early voting underway.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$23,059 Объем
2 июн. 2026 г.
Майк Томпсон
98%
Эрик Джонс
91%
Тревор Мэррелл
12%
Хит Фулкерсон
9%
Шэрон Браун
8%
Джон Уэсли Тайлер
8%
Мэнди Гусар
6%
Лори Маккензи
5%
$23,059 Объем
Майк Томпсон
$7,050 Объем
98%
Эрик Джонс
$4,757 Объем
91%
Тревор Мэррелл
$7,016 Объем
12%
Хит Фулкерсон
$396 Объем
9%
Шэрон Браун
$1,621 Объем
8%
Джон Уэсли Тайлер
$765 Объем
8%
Мэнди Гусар
$744 Объем
6%
Лори Маккензи
$710 Объем
5%
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson dominates trader consensus at near-certainty to advance from California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, 2026, buoyed by his 28-year tenure, Democratic Party of California endorsement, and recent Sacramento Bee backing, while challenger Democrat Eric Jones follows closely on strong fundraising exceeding $3.2 million and progressive Our Revolution support. Fragmented Republican field—six contenders including Sharon Brown, L. John MacKenzie, and others—dilutes GOP votes under the top-two system, historically favoring one Democrat and one Republican but here tilting toward an all-Democrat matchup amid post-redistricting Democratic lean. Article One PAC's $30,000 infusion to Thompson last week underscores intensifying intra-party battle; ballots are mailed with early voting underway.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Объем
$23,059Дата окончания
2 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson dominates trader consensus at near-certainty to advance from California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, 2026, buoyed by his 28-year tenure, Democratic Party of California endorsement, and recent Sacramento Bee backing, while challenger Democrat Eric Jones follows closely on strong fundraising exceeding $3.2 million and progressive Our Revolution support. Fragmented Republican field—six contenders including Sharon Brown, L. John MacKenzie, and others—dilutes GOP votes under the top-two system, historically favoring one Democrat and one Republican but here tilting toward an all-Democrat matchup amid post-redistricting Democratic lean. Article One PAC's $30,000 infusion to Thompson last week underscores intensifying intra-party battle; ballots are mailed with early voting underway.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Объем
$23,059Дата окончания
2 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson dominates trader consensus at near-certainty to advance from California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, 2026, buoyed by his 28-year tenure, Democratic Party of California endorsement, and recent Sacramento Bee backing, while challenger Democrat Eric Jones follows closely on strong fundraising exceeding $3.2 million and progressive Our Revolution support. Fragmented Republican field—six contenders including Sharon Brown, L. John MacKenzie, and others—dilutes GOP votes under the top-two system, historically favoring one Democrat and one Republican but here tilting toward an all-Democrat matchup amid post-redistricting Democratic lean. Article One PAC's $30,000 infusion to Thompson last week underscores intensifying intra-party battle; ballots are mailed with early voting underway.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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