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Выборы·Первичные

CA-04 Основные победители

Market icon
Выборы·Первичные

CA-04 Основные победители

$20,028 Объем

2 июн. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$20,028 Объем

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$6,439 Объем

96%

Eric Jones

$3,848 Объем

95%

John Wesley Tyler

$554 Объем

23%

Trevor Merrell

$6,262 Объем

15%

Laurie MacKenzie

$629 Объем

9%

Heath Fulkerson

$0 Объем

8%

Sharon Brown

$1,588 Объем

6%

Mandy Ghusar

$708 Объем

6%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) and challenger Eric Jones (D) dominate trader consensus to advance from California's top-two primary on June 2 in the solidly Democratic 4th Congressional District (D+17 PVI after 2025 redistricting via Proposition 50), thanks to their superior fundraising—Jones raised $2.6 million and Thompson $2 million through late 2025, dwarfing the six underfunded Republicans' combined totals under $150,000. The certified candidate list released March 26 confirmed nine contenders, including independents, amid a fragmented GOP field prone to vote-splitting that has historically sent one Democrat and one Republican forward since 2016. The Democratic Party of California endorsed Thompson for his regional advocacy on wildfires and wine industry issues, while Our Revolution backed Jones's progressive push against corporate influence; no public polls yet, with early voting approaching in late May.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Объем
$20,028
Дата окончания
2 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) and challenger Eric Jones (D) dominate trader consensus to advance from California's top-two primary on June 2 in the solidly Democratic 4th Congressional District (D+17 PVI after 2025 redistricting via Proposition 50), thanks to their superior fundraising—Jones raised $2.6 million and Thompson $2 million through late 2025, dwarfing the six underfunded Republicans' combined totals under $150,000. The certified candidate list released March 26 confirmed nine contenders, including independents, amid a fragmented GOP field prone to vote-splitting that has historically sent one Democrat and one Republican forward since 2016. The Democratic Party of California endorsed Thompson for his regional advocacy on wildfires and wine industry issues, while Our Revolution backed Jones's progressive push against corporate influence; no public polls yet, with early voting approaching in late May.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Объем
$20,028
Дата окончания
2 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«CA-04 Основные победители» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 8 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Mike Thompson» с 96%, за ним следует «Eric Jones» с 95%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 96¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 96%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «CA-04 Основные победители» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $20K с момента запуска рынка Feb 26, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «CA-04 Основные победители», просмотри 8 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «CA-04 Основные победители» — «Mike Thompson» с 96%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 96%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Eric Jones» с 95%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «CA-04 Основные победители» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.