Mary Peltola holds a substantial lead in trader consensus for the November 2026 Alaska Senate race under ranked-choice voting, reflecting recent polling momentum and rating shifts. A New York Times/Siena survey released in early October showed her ahead 50-43 among likely voters, her largest margin yet, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the contest to “Leans Democratic” for the first time in nearly two decades. Peltola’s strong 49.5% finish in the August top-four primary, ahead of incumbent Dan Sullivan’s 41.4%, combined with her centrist profile and appeal among independents and younger voters, has positioned her as the frontrunner. Sullivan maintains advantages in a historically Republican state and among older voters, yet narrower recent surveys and the absence of major late developments have kept minor candidates at negligible odds. The outcome could influence Senate balance, with ranked-choice tabulation and turnout patterns remaining key variables through Election Day.