Mary Peltola maintains a lead of roughly 4,000 first-choice votes over incumbent Dan Sullivan after more than 80 percent of ballots have been counted in Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, with remaining early and absentee ballots from Anchorage and rural areas continuing to favor the Democrat. Traders have priced Peltola at 99.7 percent, reflecting consistent updates showing modest Republican gains in conservative regions and the limited impact of minor candidates. The Nov. 18 ranked-choice tabulation could shift some second preferences, yet current margins and historical ballot patterns create significant barriers to reversal absent unusually strong late shifts from uncounted conservative precincts.