Mary Peltola holds a commanding lead in first-choice votes in Alaska’s 2026 U.S. Senate race following the November 3 election, with unofficial tallies showing her ahead of incumbent Dan Sullivan by roughly 1.6 points at 48.9 percent to 47.3 percent. The state’s ranked-choice voting system, scheduled for tabulation on November 18, drives trader consensus toward Peltola because second-preference transfers from eliminated candidates are expected to push her over 50 percent. Ongoing absentee ballot counting through mid-November and final certification on November 25 remain the main variables. A late surge of Republican-leaning ballots sufficient to reverse the first-round margin or unexpected shifts in voter rankings could still alter the outcome before results are finalized.