Mary Peltola holds a narrow but growing lead in first-choice votes over incumbent Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s ranked-choice Senate contest, with roughly three-quarters of ballots counted as of November 10. Her advantage stems from strong performance among early and absentee voters added in recent tallies, building on a competitive primary showing and polling averages that positioned the race as a toss-up heading into Election Day. Alaska’s RCV system, under which minor-party and independent candidates’ votes redistribute if no one reaches 50 percent initially, appears to favor Peltola’s broader appeal among non-Republican voters. Remaining ballots, final RCV tabulations, and any certification disputes represent the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before results are finalized.
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