Mary Peltola holds a narrow but consistent lead in first-choice votes in Alaska’s ranked-choice Senate election, currently at 48.9% to incumbent Dan Sullivan’s 47.3% with roughly 86% of ballots counted as of November 12. Traders assign her over 99% implied probability because remaining absentee and overseas ballots have trended her way in recent drops, and preliminary ranking data shows substantial second-choice support from eliminated candidates flowing toward her rather than Sullivan. The Division of Elections will begin the ranked-choice tabulation on November 18 if neither reaches 50%, with final certification expected by November 25. A decisive shift in the last ballots or unexpected redistribution patterns remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome.