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Политика·Выборы в США

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

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Политика·Выборы в США

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

16% chance
Polymarket
NEW
16% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors rejection of Missouri Amendment 3 at 85.5% implied probability for "No," reflecting skepticism over its passage in the November 3, 2026 election despite bundling an abortion ban—with limited exceptions for medical emergencies, fetal anomalies, rape, or incest—with prohibitions on gender transition procedures for minors. A February SLU/YouGov poll of 900 likely voters showed only 47% support versus 40% opposition (12% undecided), falling short of a majority even as two-thirds oppose gender-affirming care already restricted by state law and upheld by the Missouri Supreme Court in January. The measure seeks to repeal the 2024 voter-approved constitutional right to reproductive freedom, facing strong opposition from Planned Parenthood and ACLU amid fundraising disparities, while recent Catholic bishops' endorsement on March 26 provides modest momentum but underscores persistent barriers to overturning prior voter intent.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors rejection of Missouri Amendment 3 at 85.5% implied probability for "No," reflecting skepticism over its passage in the November 3, 2026 election despite bundling an abortion ban—with limited exceptions for medical emergencies, fetal anomalies, rape, or incest—with prohibitions on gender transition procedures for minors. A February SLU/YouGov poll of 900 likely voters showed only 47% support versus 40% opposition (12% undecided), falling short of a majority even as two-thirds oppose gender-affirming care already restricted by state law and upheld by the Missouri Supreme Court in January. The measure seeks to repeal the 2024 voter-approved constitutional right to reproductive freedom, facing strong opposition from Planned Parenthood and ACLU amid fundraising disparities, while recent Catholic bishops' endorsement on March 26 provides modest momentum but underscores persistent barriers to overturning prior voter intent.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors rejection of Missouri Amendment 3 at 85.5% implied probability for "No," reflecting skepticism over its passage in the November 3, 2026 election despite bundling an abortion ban—with limited exceptions for medical emergencies, fetal anomalies, rape, or incest—with prohibitions on gender transition procedures for minors. A February SLU/YouGov poll of 900 likely voters showed only 47% support versus 40% opposition (12% undecided), falling short of a majority even as two-thirds oppose gender-affirming care already restricted by state law and upheld by the Missouri Supreme Court in January. The measure seeks to repeal the 2024 voter-approved constitutional right to reproductive freedom, facing strong opposition from Planned Parenthood and ACLU amid fundraising disparities, while recent Catholic bishops' endorsement on March 26 provides modest momentum but underscores persistent barriers to overturning prior voter intent.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors rejection of Missouri Amendment 3 at 85.5% implied probability for "No," reflecting skepticism over its passage in the November 3, 2026 election despite bundling an abortion ban—with limited exceptions for medical emergencies, fetal anomalies, rape, or incest—with prohibitions on gender transition procedures for minors. A February SLU/YouGov poll of 900 likely voters showed only 47% support versus 40% opposition (12% undecided), falling short of a majority even as two-thirds oppose gender-affirming care already restricted by state law and upheld by the Missouri Supreme Court in January. The measure seeks to repeal the 2024 voter-approved constitutional right to reproductive freedom, facing strong opposition from Planned Parenthood and ACLU amid fundraising disparities, while recent Catholic bishops' endorsement on March 26 provides modest momentum but underscores persistent barriers to overturning prior voter intent.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

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«Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 16% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 16¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 16%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Mar 2, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

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Текущая вероятность для «Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?» составляет 16% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 16%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

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