The May 11 Democratic nominating convention produced a narrow upset when Luke Bronin captured the party endorsement over 14-term incumbent John Larson on the second ballot, 51.2% to 48.8%. That result, described as unprecedented for a sitting member of Congress in Connecticut, shifted momentum in the August 11 three-way primary that also includes state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, who cleared the 15% threshold with support from Larson allies. Bronin’s convention performance has driven trader consensus toward him as the frontrunner, while Larson’s subsequent efforts to reframe the contest around ideological and donor issues have yet to reverse the delegate setback. The remaining candidates trail well behind in both ballot access and visible support.