Recent Siena College polling from October 15-21 shows Democratic challenger Josh Riley leading Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro 49%-44% in NY-19, bolstering trader consensus at 72.5% for a Democratic House win amid the district's slight Democratic lean (Biden +5 in 2020). Strong early voting turnout in Democratic strongholds like Ulster County has further tilted sentiment, contrasting Molinaro's narrow 2022 midterm victory by under 5,000 votes. National House battleground dynamics favor challengers in open-feeling races, though GOP incumbency advantages persist; with Election Day November 5, final absentee ballot counts and turnout in swing areas like Dutchess could sway the closely watched contest.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-19
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-19
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Демократическая партия
75%
Республиканская партия
25%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Демократическая партия
$224 Объем
75%
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent Siena College polling from October 15-21 shows Democratic challenger Josh Riley leading Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro 49%-44% in NY-19, bolstering trader consensus at 72.5% for a Democratic House win amid the district's slight Democratic lean (Biden +5 in 2020). Strong early voting turnout in Democratic strongholds like Ulster County has further tilted sentiment, contrasting Molinaro's narrow 2022 midterm victory by under 5,000 votes. National House battleground dynamics favor challengers in open-feeling races, though GOP incumbency advantages persist; with Election Day November 5, final absentee ballot counts and turnout in swing areas like Dutchess could sway the closely watched contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Объем
$224Дата окончания
Nov 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent Siena College polling from October 15-21 shows Democratic challenger Josh Riley leading Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro 49%-44% in NY-19, bolstering trader consensus at 72.5% for a Democratic House win amid the district's slight Democratic lean (Biden +5 in 2020). Strong early voting turnout in Democratic strongholds like Ulster County has further tilted sentiment, contrasting Molinaro's narrow 2022 midterm victory by under 5,000 votes. National House battleground dynamics favor challengers in open-feeling races, though GOP incumbency advantages persist; with Election Day November 5, final absentee ballot counts and turnout in swing areas like Dutchess could sway the closely watched contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$224Дата окончания
Nov 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Siena College polling from October 15-21 shows Democratic challenger Josh Riley leading Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro 49%-44% in NY-19, bolstering trader consensus at 72.5% for a Democratic House win amid the district's slight Democratic lean (Biden +5 in 2020). Strong early voting turnout in Democratic strongholds like Ulster County has further tilted sentiment, contrasting Molinaro's narrow 2022 midterm victory by under 5,000 votes. National House battleground dynamics favor challengers in open-feeling races, though GOP incumbency advantages persist; with Election Day November 5, final absentee ballot counts and turnout in swing areas like Dutchess could sway the closely watched contest.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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