Polls conducted in late February and early March 2026, including Ipsos and Survation surveys, consistently show the Scottish National Party leading constituency voting intentions at 35-39%, far ahead of Reform UK (14-21%) and Scottish Labour (12-20%), with seat projections from Ballot Box Scotland estimating SNP at 61-63 of 129 MSPs—well clear of rivals. This trader consensus, implying near-certainty for SNP as the largest party under the additional member system, stems from First Minister John Swinney's steady leadership amid SNP's recent Holyrood campaign launch on March 26 and stagnant opposition amid economic and NHS concerns. Volatility persists, with 40% of voters open to switching, but a commanding position endures. Late scandals, a Reform surge on immigration, or tactical anti-SNP voting could challenge this ahead of May 7.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель парламентских выборов в Шотландии
Победитель парламентских выборов в Шотландии
Шотландская национальная партия 96.9%
Шотландская лейбористская партия 1.1%
Reform UK <1%
Шотландские либеральные демократы <1%
$1,195,718 Объем
$1,195,718 Объем
May 7, 2026
Шотландская национальная партия
97%
Шотландская лейбористская партия
1%
Reform UK
1%
Шотландские либеральные демократы
1%
Партия Суверенитет
1%
Шотландская партия зелёных
<1%
Шотландские консерваторы
<1%
Партия Альба
<1%
Шотландская национальная партия 96.9%
Шотландская лейбористская партия 1.1%
Reform UK <1%
Шотландские либеральные демократы <1%
$1,195,718 Объем
$1,195,718 Объем
May 7, 2026
Шотландская национальная партия
$930,879 Объем
97%
Шотландская лейбористская партия
$40,071 Объем
1%
Reform UK
$62,503 Объем
1%
Шотландские либеральные демократы
$102,372 Объем
1%
Партия Суверенитет
$3,803 Объем
1%
Шотландская партия зелёных
$35,539 Объем
<1%
Шотландские консерваторы
$4,632 Объем
<1%
Партия Альба
$15,921 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Polls conducted in late February and early March 2026, including Ipsos and Survation surveys, consistently show the Scottish National Party leading constituency voting intentions at 35-39%, far ahead of Reform UK (14-21%) and Scottish Labour (12-20%), with seat projections from Ballot Box Scotland estimating SNP at 61-63 of 129 MSPs—well clear of rivals. This trader consensus, implying near-certainty for SNP as the largest party under the additional member system, stems from First Minister John Swinney's steady leadership amid SNP's recent Holyrood campaign launch on March 26 and stagnant opposition amid economic and NHS concerns. Volatility persists, with 40% of voters open to switching, but a commanding position endures. Late scandals, a Reform surge on immigration, or tactical anti-SNP voting could challenge this ahead of May 7.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET
Объем
$1,195,718Дата окончания
May 7, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Polls conducted in late February and early March 2026, including Ipsos and Survation surveys, consistently show the Scottish National Party leading constituency voting intentions at 35-39%, far ahead of Reform UK (14-21%) and Scottish Labour (12-20%), with seat projections from Ballot Box Scotland estimating SNP at 61-63 of 129 MSPs—well clear of rivals. This trader consensus, implying near-certainty for SNP as the largest party under the additional member system, stems from First Minister John Swinney's steady leadership amid SNP's recent Holyrood campaign launch on March 26 and stagnant opposition amid economic and NHS concerns. Volatility persists, with 40% of voters open to switching, but a commanding position endures. Late scandals, a Reform surge on immigration, or tactical anti-SNP voting could challenge this ahead of May 7.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Объем
$1,195,718Дата окончания
May 7, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polls conducted in late February and early March 2026, including Ipsos and Survation surveys, consistently show the Scottish National Party leading constituency voting intentions at 35-39%, far ahead of Reform UK (14-21%) and Scottish Labour (12-20%), with seat projections from Ballot Box Scotland estimating SNP at 61-63 of 129 MSPs—well clear of rivals. This trader consensus, implying near-certainty for SNP as the largest party under the additional member system, stems from First Minister John Swinney's steady leadership amid SNP's recent Holyrood campaign launch on March 26 and stagnant opposition amid economic and NHS concerns. Volatility persists, with 40% of voters open to switching, but a commanding position endures. Late scandals, a Reform surge on immigration, or tactical anti-SNP voting could challenge this ahead of May 7.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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