Romuald Wadagni, Benin's senior minister of economy and finance and the ruling coalition's designated successor to term-limited President Patrice Talon, commands overwhelming trader consensus at 98.8% implied probability ahead of the April 12 presidential election, reflecting the coalition's clean sweep of all 109 National Assembly seats in January's parliamentary vote and the effective sidelining of opposition through stringent candidacy rules that approved only Wadagni and Paul Hounkpè. Recent campaign launches, including Wadagni's March 23 platform unveiling promising municipal police to combat jihadist threats in the north and active rallies since March 27, have reinforced his continuity appeal amid fragmented opposition—main party Les Démocrates declined endorsements last week. While low voter turnout remains a risk from prior elections, scenarios like a late scandal, health event, or successful legal challenge to results could shift dynamics before resolution post-certification.