Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a 64.5% implied probability as trader consensus favorite over challenger Cori Bush at 30% in Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, driven by his decisive 2024 primary win and stronger cash-on-hand position as reported in February. Both filed by the March 31 deadline, confirming the anticipated rematch in the safely Democratic St. Louis-anchored district, where Bell's moderate profile and prior AIPAC support contrast Bush's progressive record and recent endorsements from National Nurses United and PAL PAC. Absent fresh polls, markets price in incumbency advantages and historical base rates for House primary reelection, with fundraising and outside spending poised to shape the contest.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоУэсли Белл
65%
Кори Буш
30%
Уэсли Белл
65%
Кори Буш
30%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a 64.5% implied probability as trader consensus favorite over challenger Cori Bush at 30% in Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, driven by his decisive 2024 primary win and stronger cash-on-hand position as reported in February. Both filed by the March 31 deadline, confirming the anticipated rematch in the safely Democratic St. Louis-anchored district, where Bell's moderate profile and prior AIPAC support contrast Bush's progressive record and recent endorsements from National Nurses United and PAL PAC. Absent fresh polls, markets price in incumbency advantages and historical base rates for House primary reelection, with fundraising and outside spending poised to shape the contest.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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