Current National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) observations place Arctic sea ice extent at 4.92 million square kilometers as of early August 2024, a sharp 1.2 million square kilometer drop since late June driven by persistent above-freezing air temperatures, clear skies, and warm ocean surfaces that have fueled rapid melt. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) project a September minimum of 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers—well below the 1981–2010 average of 6.2 million—elevating trader consensus on <4 million sq km (38% implied probability) while distributing volume across nearby bins like 4.4–4.6m (20%). Late-summer weather patterns, including potential cyclones or cooling, introduce uncertainty, with daily NSIDC updates and forecast refreshes through mid-September poised to shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоМин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?
Мин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?
<4 млн кв км 37%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км 16.0%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км 14.9%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км 14.5%
$28,055 Объем
$28,055 Объем
Oct 1, 2026
<4 млн кв км
38%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км
14%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км
15%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км
21%
4,6–4,8 млн кв. км
19%
4,8–5 млн кв. км
10%
5+ млн кв. км
7%
<4 млн кв км 37%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км 16.0%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км 14.9%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км 14.5%
$28,055 Объем
$28,055 Объем
Oct 1, 2026
<4 млн кв км
$23,257 Объем
38%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км
$1,335 Объем
14%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км
$598 Объем
15%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км
$691 Объем
21%
4,6–4,8 млн кв. км
$1,120 Объем
19%
4,8–5 млн кв. км
$529 Объем
10%
5+ млн кв. км
$525 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Current National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) observations place Arctic sea ice extent at 4.92 million square kilometers as of early August 2024, a sharp 1.2 million square kilometer drop since late June driven by persistent above-freezing air temperatures, clear skies, and warm ocean surfaces that have fueled rapid melt. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) project a September minimum of 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers—well below the 1981–2010 average of 6.2 million—elevating trader consensus on <4 million sq km (38% implied probability) while distributing volume across nearby bins like 4.4–4.6m (20%). Late-summer weather patterns, including potential cyclones or cooling, introduce uncertainty, with daily NSIDC updates and forecast refreshes through mid-September poised to shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Объем
$28,055Дата окончания
Oct 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Current National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) observations place Arctic sea ice extent at 4.92 million square kilometers as of early August 2024, a sharp 1.2 million square kilometer drop since late June driven by persistent above-freezing air temperatures, clear skies, and warm ocean surfaces that have fueled rapid melt. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) project a September minimum of 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers—well below the 1981–2010 average of 6.2 million—elevating trader consensus on <4 million sq km (38% implied probability) while distributing volume across nearby bins like 4.4–4.6m (20%). Late-summer weather patterns, including potential cyclones or cooling, introduce uncertainty, with daily NSIDC updates and forecast refreshes through mid-September poised to shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Объем
$28,055Дата окончания
Oct 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) observations place Arctic sea ice extent at 4.92 million square kilometers as of early August 2024, a sharp 1.2 million square kilometer drop since late June driven by persistent above-freezing air temperatures, clear skies, and warm ocean surfaces that have fueled rapid melt. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) project a September minimum of 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers—well below the 1981–2010 average of 6.2 million—elevating trader consensus on <4 million sq km (38% implied probability) while distributing volume across nearby bins like 4.4–4.6m (20%). Late-summer weather patterns, including potential cyclones or cooling, introduce uncertainty, with daily NSIDC updates and forecast refreshes through mid-September poised to shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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