Trader consensus has locked in at 100% for a highest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on March 18, driven primarily by official observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which recorded a peak of 17.2°C at key stations like Haneda, just shy of 18°C thresholds. This aligns with prevailing weather patterns: cool northerly winds and cloudy conditions suppressed highs amid March's typical mean of 13°C. Ensemble forecasts from JMA and ECMWF models had converged on 16-18°C ranges days prior, minimizing upside surprises. Realistic challenges include post hoc data revisions from auxiliary sensors or microclimatic anomalies at unmonitored sites, though JMA verification processes make shifts above 18°C improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Токио 18 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Токио 18 марта?
17°C 100.0%
9°C или ниже <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$9,488 Объем
$9,488 Объем
9°C или ниже
Нет
10°C
Нет
11°C
Нет
12°C
Нет
13°C
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C
Нет
16°C
Нет
17°C
Да
18°C
Нет
19°C или выше
Нет
17°C 100.0%
9°C или ниже <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$9,488 Объем
$9,488 Объем
9°C или ниже
Нет
10°C
Нет
11°C
Нет
12°C
Нет
13°C
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C
Нет
16°C
Нет
17°C
Да
18°C
Нет
19°C или выше
Нет
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 14, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus has locked in at 100% for a highest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on March 18, driven primarily by official observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which recorded a peak of 17.2°C at key stations like Haneda, just shy of 18°C thresholds. This aligns with prevailing weather patterns: cool northerly winds and cloudy conditions suppressed highs amid March's typical mean of 13°C. Ensemble forecasts from JMA and ECMWF models had converged on 16-18°C ranges days prior, minimizing upside surprises. Realistic challenges include post hoc data revisions from auxiliary sensors or microclimatic anomalies at unmonitored sites, though JMA verification processes make shifts above 18°C improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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