Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 26°C as Taipei's highest temperature on March 17, with market-implied odds at 100%, driven by converged forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS projecting a daytime maximum of 25-27°C under partly cloudy conditions with light southerly winds. This positioning aligns with recent observations of mild subtropical highs dominating the region, where March historical averages hover around 23-25°C but current patterns show a slight warm-up without heat advisories. Supporting evidence includes station data from Songshan Airport confirming stable mid-20s peaks. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen intensification of solar insolation from clearing skies or a sudden warm front, potentially nudging toward 28°C, though ensemble model agreement makes this unlikely below 1%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Тайбэе 17 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Тайбэе 17 марта?
26°C 100.0%
20°C или ниже <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$0.00 Объем
$0.00 Объем
20°C или ниже
Нет
21°C
Нет
22°C
Нет
23°C
Нет
24°C
Нет
25°C
Нет
26°C
Да
27°C
Нет
28°C
Нет
29°C
Нет
30°C или выше
Нет
26°C 100.0%
20°C или ниже <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$0.00 Объем
$0.00 Объем
20°C или ниже
Нет
21°C
Нет
22°C
Нет
23°C
Нет
24°C
Нет
25°C
Нет
26°C
Да
27°C
Нет
28°C
Нет
29°C
Нет
30°C или выше
Нет
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 26°C as Taipei's highest temperature on March 17, with market-implied odds at 100%, driven by converged forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS projecting a daytime maximum of 25-27°C under partly cloudy conditions with light southerly winds. This positioning aligns with recent observations of mild subtropical highs dominating the region, where March historical averages hover around 23-25°C but current patterns show a slight warm-up without heat advisories. Supporting evidence includes station data from Songshan Airport confirming stable mid-20s peaks. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen intensification of solar insolation from clearing skies or a sudden warm front, potentially nudging toward 28°C, though ensemble model agreement makes this unlikely below 1%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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