Trader consensus prices a 66% implied probability of House impeachment against President Trump before January 20, 2029, driven primarily by recent CNN polling showing Democrats leading Republicans by six points on the generic congressional ballot ahead of the November 2026 midterms, where GOP's narrow House majority faces vulnerability. This reflects historical precedent—Democrats impeached Trump twice during his first term upon gaining the House—amid falling approval ratings linked to Iran airstrikes, economic strains like rising gas prices, and fresh cabinet upheaval, including Attorney General Pam Bondi's abrupt dismissal on April 2 over an impending House subpoena on Epstein-related matters. Multiple Democratic-led impeachment resolutions remain tabled under current Republican control, but midterms represent the pivotal catalyst for potential articles of impeachment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$34,378 Vol.
$34,378 Vol.
$34,378 Vol.
$34,378 Vol.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 66% implied probability of House impeachment against President Trump before January 20, 2029, driven primarily by recent CNN polling showing Democrats leading Republicans by six points on the generic congressional ballot ahead of the November 2026 midterms, where GOP's narrow House majority faces vulnerability. This reflects historical precedent—Democrats impeached Trump twice during his first term upon gaining the House—amid falling approval ratings linked to Iran airstrikes, economic strains like rising gas prices, and fresh cabinet upheaval, including Attorney General Pam Bondi's abrupt dismissal on April 2 over an impending House subpoena on Epstein-related matters. Multiple Democratic-led impeachment resolutions remain tabled under current Republican control, but midterms represent the pivotal catalyst for potential articles of impeachment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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