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Política·Trump

O terminal de petróleo da Ilha Kharg será atingido por...?

Market icon
Política·Trump

O terminal de petróleo da Ilha Kharg será atingido por...?

Mar 31

Mar 31

$699,030 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$699,030 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

31 de março

$689,510 Vol.

8%

Market icon

30 de abril

$9,521 Vol.

33%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike between February 28 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Iran military tensions in the Persian Gulf, US airstrikes targeted military installations on Kharg Island—handling 90% of Iran's crude oil exports—on March 14, explicitly sparing the oil terminal infrastructure despite President Trump's threats to strike it if Iran persists with attacks on shipping lanes and Gulf allies. Recent diplomatic and strategic discussions, including former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's March 26 call for a joint US-Israel seizure of the island to neutralize Iran's Strait of Hormuz leverage, have intensified focus on potential ground operations by US Marines positioning near terminals. Reuters reported March 26 on risks from Iranian drones and mines complicating any assault. No kinetic strike has hit the oil facilities yet, with traders eyeing imminent escalation signals, retaliation threats to regional energy sites, and resolution deadlines like March 31.

Amid escalating US-Iran military tensions in the Persian Gulf, US airstrikes targeted military installations on Kharg Island—handling 90% of Iran's crude oil exports—on March 14, explicitly sparing the oil terminal infrastructure despite President Trump's threats to strike it if Iran persists with attacks on shipping lanes and Gulf allies. Recent diplomatic and strategic discussions, including former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's March 26 call for a joint US-Israel seizure of the island to neutralize Iran's Strait of Hormuz leverage, have intensified focus on potential ground operations by US Marines positioning near terminals. Reuters reported March 26 on risks from Iranian drones and mines complicating any assault. No kinetic strike has hit the oil facilities yet, with traders eyeing imminent escalation signals, retaliation threats to regional energy sites, and resolution deadlines like March 31.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike between February 28 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Iran military tensions in the Persian Gulf, US airstrikes targeted military installations on Kharg Island—handling 90% of Iran's crude oil exports—on March 14, explicitly sparing the oil terminal infrastructure despite President Trump's threats to strike it if Iran persists with attacks on shipping lanes and Gulf allies. Recent diplomatic and strategic discussions, including former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's March 26 call for a joint US-Israel seizure of the island to neutralize Iran's Strait of Hormuz leverage, have intensified focus on potential ground operations by US Marines positioning near terminals. Reuters reported March 26 on risks from Iranian drones and mines complicating any assault. No kinetic strike has hit the oil facilities yet, with traders eyeing imminent escalation signals, retaliation threats to regional energy sites, and resolution deadlines like March 31.

Amid escalating US-Iran military tensions in the Persian Gulf, US airstrikes targeted military installations on Kharg Island—handling 90% of Iran's crude oil exports—on March 14, explicitly sparing the oil terminal infrastructure despite President Trump's threats to strike it if Iran persists with attacks on shipping lanes and Gulf allies. Recent diplomatic and strategic discussions, including former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's March 26 call for a joint US-Israel seizure of the island to neutralize Iran's Strait of Hormuz leverage, have intensified focus on potential ground operations by US Marines positioning near terminals. Reuters reported March 26 on risks from Iranian drones and mines complicating any assault. No kinetic strike has hit the oil facilities yet, with traders eyeing imminent escalation signals, retaliation threats to regional energy sites, and resolution deadlines like March 31.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"O terminal de petróleo da Ilha Kharg será atingido por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 de abril" at 33%, followed by "31 de março" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O terminal de petróleo da Ilha Kharg será atingido por...?" has generated $699K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O terminal de petróleo da Ilha Kharg será atingido por...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O terminal de petróleo da Ilha Kharg será atingido por...?" is "30 de abril" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 de março" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O terminal de petróleo da Ilha Kharg será atingido por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.