Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 marked the latest escalation in the shadow war between the two nations, destroying missile production facilities while avoiding nuclear or oil infrastructure to limit retaliation risks. Iran's response has remained muted, with Supreme Leader Khamenei signaling restraint amid domestic economic pressures and U.S. election outcomes. Incoming President Trump's hawkish stance on Iran, including past threats of maximum pressure sanctions, introduces uncertainty for escalation scenarios, though no public plans exist for ground entry by any foreign forces before June 30, 2025. Key watchpoints include diplomatic signals from the incoming U.S. administration, potential Iranian proxy actions, and IAEA reports on nuclear compliance that could trigger further military posturing. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities for entry, emphasizing diplomatic off-ramps over invasion amid high barriers like terrain, air defenses, and international backlash.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$166,880 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Pete Hegseth
8%
Qualquer membro da Câmara dos EUA
7%
Qualquer senador dos EUA
7%
JD Vance
7%
Jared Kushner
7%
Benjamin Netanyahu
6%
Marco Rubio
5%
Donald Trump
3%
$166,880 Vol.
Pete Hegseth
$22,685 Vol.
8%
Qualquer membro da Câmara dos EUA
$49,606 Vol.
7%
Qualquer senador dos EUA
$0 Vol.
7%
JD Vance
$0 Vol.
7%
Jared Kushner
$8,124 Vol.
7%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$19,306 Vol.
6%
Marco Rubio
$10,827 Vol.
5%
Donald Trump
$56,333 Vol.
3%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 marked the latest escalation in the shadow war between the two nations, destroying missile production facilities while avoiding nuclear or oil infrastructure to limit retaliation risks. Iran's response has remained muted, with Supreme Leader Khamenei signaling restraint amid domestic economic pressures and U.S. election outcomes. Incoming President Trump's hawkish stance on Iran, including past threats of maximum pressure sanctions, introduces uncertainty for escalation scenarios, though no public plans exist for ground entry by any foreign forces before June 30, 2025. Key watchpoints include diplomatic signals from the incoming U.S. administration, potential Iranian proxy actions, and IAEA reports on nuclear compliance that could trigger further military posturing. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities for entry, emphasizing diplomatic off-ramps over invasion amid high barriers like terrain, air defenses, and international backlash.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$166,880Data de Término
Jun 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 marked the latest escalation in the shadow war between the two nations, destroying missile production facilities while avoiding nuclear or oil infrastructure to limit retaliation risks. Iran's response has remained muted, with Supreme Leader Khamenei signaling restraint amid domestic economic pressures and U.S. election outcomes. Incoming President Trump's hawkish stance on Iran, including past threats of maximum pressure sanctions, introduces uncertainty for escalation scenarios, though no public plans exist for ground entry by any foreign forces before June 30, 2025. Key watchpoints include diplomatic signals from the incoming U.S. administration, potential Iranian proxy actions, and IAEA reports on nuclear compliance that could trigger further military posturing. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities for entry, emphasizing diplomatic off-ramps over invasion amid high barriers like terrain, air defenses, and international backlash.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$166,880Data de Término
Jun 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 marked the latest escalation in the shadow war between the two nations, destroying missile production facilities while avoiding nuclear or oil infrastructure to limit retaliation risks. Iran's response has remained muted, with Supreme Leader Khamenei signaling restraint amid domestic economic pressures and U.S. election outcomes. Incoming President Trump's hawkish stance on Iran, including past threats of maximum pressure sanctions, introduces uncertainty for escalation scenarios, though no public plans exist for ground entry by any foreign forces before June 30, 2025. Key watchpoints include diplomatic signals from the incoming U.S. administration, potential Iranian proxy actions, and IAEA reports on nuclear compliance that could trigger further military posturing. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities for entry, emphasizing diplomatic off-ramps over invasion amid high barriers like terrain, air defenses, and international backlash.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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