Market icon
Política·Irão

Quem entrará no Irão até 30 de junho?

Market icon
Política·Irão

Quem entrará no Irão até 30 de junho?

$251,836 Vol.

30 jun 2026
Polymarket

$251,836 Vol.

Polymarket

Qualquer membro da Câmara dos EUA

$54,739 Vol.

6%

Marco Rubio

$13,407 Vol.

6%

Qualquer senador dos EUA

$22,875 Vol.

5%

Pete Hegseth

$49,221 Vol.

5%

Jared Kushner

$11,940 Vol.

5%

JD Vance

$8,358 Vol.

3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$33,154 Vol.

3%

Donald Trump

$58,143 Vol.

2%

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury since late February 2026, trader consensus reflects low probabilities—led by Any U.S. House member and Pete Hegseth at 6% each—for specific figures physically entering Iran's land territory by June 30, as no ground incursion has occurred despite high odds on related US forces entry markets. Iran's downing of a US fighter jet on April 3 underscores operational risks, while Tehran leverages Strait of Hormuz restrictions and dismisses a US 15-point peace plan from March 24. Defense Secretary Hegseth's recent secret CENTCOM visit highlighted air dominance but stopped short of Iran. Potential ground operations loom, yet regime resilience and diplomatic posturing sustain uncertainty over high-profile entries.

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251,836
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury since late February 2026, trader consensus reflects low probabilities—led by Any U.S. House member and Pete Hegseth at 6% each—for specific figures physically entering Iran's land territory by June 30, as no ground incursion has occurred despite high odds on related US forces entry markets. Iran's downing of a US fighter jet on April 3 underscores operational risks, while Tehran leverages Strait of Hormuz restrictions and dismisses a US 15-point peace plan from March 24. Defense Secretary Hegseth's recent secret CENTCOM visit highlighted air dominance but stopped short of Iran. Potential ground operations loom, yet regime resilience and diplomatic posturing sustain uncertainty over high-profile entries.

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251,836
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quem entrará no Irão até 30 de junho?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Qualquer membro da Câmara dos EUA" at 6%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quem entrará no Irão até 30 de junho?" has generated $251.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quem entrará no Irão até 30 de junho?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Quem entrará no Irão até 30 de junho?" is "Qualquer membro da Câmara dos EUA" at just 6%, with "Marco Rubio" close behind at 6%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Quem entrará no Irão até 30 de junho?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.