Israel's airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites on October 26—described as limited and avoiding nuclear or oil targets—prompted vows of retaliation from Supreme Leader Khamenei and IRGC commanders, who stated Iran would respond forcefully at a time and place of its choosing, driving trader focus on potential targets by March 31. This follows Iran's October 1 barrage of ~200 ballistic missiles against Israel, retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah and Hamas's Haniyeh, amid proxy escalations via Houthis disrupting Red Sea shipping and Hezbollah rocket fire. No direct Iranian strikes have materialized since, with Tehran signaling restraint to avert all-out war, though diplomatic tensions persist. The U.S. presidential election on November 5 could reshape regional dynamics, influencing escalation risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoO que o Irão vai atacar até 31 de março?
O que o Irão vai atacar até 31 de março?
$441,622 Vol.
Dimona (Centro de Pesquisa Nuclear Shimon Peres Negev)
2%
Burj Khalifa
3%
Campo de Ghawar
7%
Campo Safaniya
9%
instalação de processamento de petróleo de Abqaiq
11%
Refinaria de Al Zour
10%
Leviathan Field
8%
Khurais Field
10%
Ras Tanura
12%
East–West Pipeline
9%
Campo/Complexo de Processamento de Habshan
10%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
20%
$441,622 Vol.
Dimona (Centro de Pesquisa Nuclear Shimon Peres Negev)
$245,786 Vol.
2%
Burj Khalifa
$1,064 Vol.
3%
Campo de Ghawar
$30,270 Vol.
7%
Campo Safaniya
$39,666 Vol.
9%
instalação de processamento de petróleo de Abqaiq
$38,642 Vol.
11%
Refinaria de Al Zour
$73,419 Vol.
10%
Leviathan Field
$675 Vol.
8%
Khurais Field
$4,323 Vol.
10%
Ras Tanura
$4,200 Vol.
12%
East–West Pipeline
$1,206 Vol.
9%
Campo/Complexo de Processamento de Habshan
$0 Vol.
10%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$2,369 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Israel's airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites on October 26—described as limited and avoiding nuclear or oil targets—prompted vows of retaliation from Supreme Leader Khamenei and IRGC commanders, who stated Iran would respond forcefully at a time and place of its choosing, driving trader focus on potential targets by March 31. This follows Iran's October 1 barrage of ~200 ballistic missiles against Israel, retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah and Hamas's Haniyeh, amid proxy escalations via Houthis disrupting Red Sea shipping and Hezbollah rocket fire. No direct Iranian strikes have materialized since, with Tehran signaling restraint to avert all-out war, though diplomatic tensions persist. The U.S. presidential election on November 5 could reshape regional dynamics, influencing escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$441,622Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Israel's airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites on October 26—described as limited and avoiding nuclear or oil targets—prompted vows of retaliation from Supreme Leader Khamenei and IRGC commanders, who stated Iran would respond forcefully at a time and place of its choosing, driving trader focus on potential targets by March 31. This follows Iran's October 1 barrage of ~200 ballistic missiles against Israel, retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah and Hamas's Haniyeh, amid proxy escalations via Houthis disrupting Red Sea shipping and Hezbollah rocket fire. No direct Iranian strikes have materialized since, with Tehran signaling restraint to avert all-out war, though diplomatic tensions persist. The U.S. presidential election on November 5 could reshape regional dynamics, influencing escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$441,622Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites on October 26—described as limited and avoiding nuclear or oil targets—prompted vows of retaliation from Supreme Leader Khamenei and IRGC commanders, who stated Iran would respond forcefully at a time and place of its choosing, driving trader focus on potential targets by March 31. This follows Iran's October 1 barrage of ~200 ballistic missiles against Israel, retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah and Hamas's Haniyeh, amid proxy escalations via Houthis disrupting Red Sea shipping and Hezbollah rocket fire. No direct Iranian strikes have materialized since, with Tehran signaling restraint to avert all-out war, though diplomatic tensions persist. The U.S. presidential election on November 5 could reshape regional dynamics, influencing escalation risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions