Tensions between Iran and Israel dominate trader sentiment following Tehran's unprecedented direct drone and missile attack on Israel on April 13, retaliating for the April 1 Israeli airstrike on Iran's Damascus consulate that killed senior IRGC commanders. Israel responded with a limited strike near Isfahan on April 19, after which Iranian officials declared the matter "concluded" to avert wider war. No further direct actions have occurred, though Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah intensify border clashes with Israel and Houthis sustain Red Sea attacks on shipping and US assets. With the April 30 deadline looming, markets weigh Tehran's restraint amid economic sanctions, nuclear talks impasse, and US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation against persistent threats of retaliation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoWhat will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
$41,762 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ras Laffan Industrial City
49%
Ras Tanura
40%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
26%
Ruwais Refinery
26%
Ghawar Field
24%
Khurais Field
21%
Safaniya Field
20%
East–West Pipeline
20%
Leviathan Field
18%
Al Zour Refinery
25%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
16%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
8%
Burj Khalifa
5%
$41,762 Vol.
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$11,240 Vol.
49%
Ras Tanura
$4,317 Vol.
40%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
$3,150 Vol.
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$6,205 Vol.
26%
Ruwais Refinery
$0 Vol.
26%
Ghawar Field
$0 Vol.
24%
Khurais Field
$4,302 Vol.
21%
Safaniya Field
$0 Vol.
20%
East–West Pipeline
$4,902 Vol.
20%
Leviathan Field
$0 Vol.
18%
Al Zour Refinery
$0 Vol.
25%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$310 Vol.
16%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$7,337 Vol.
8%
Burj Khalifa
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Tensions between Iran and Israel dominate trader sentiment following Tehran's unprecedented direct drone and missile attack on Israel on April 13, retaliating for the April 1 Israeli airstrike on Iran's Damascus consulate that killed senior IRGC commanders. Israel responded with a limited strike near Isfahan on April 19, after which Iranian officials declared the matter "concluded" to avert wider war. No further direct actions have occurred, though Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah intensify border clashes with Israel and Houthis sustain Red Sea attacks on shipping and US assets. With the April 30 deadline looming, markets weigh Tehran's restraint amid economic sanctions, nuclear talks impasse, and US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation against persistent threats of retaliation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$41,762Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Tensions between Iran and Israel dominate trader sentiment following Tehran's unprecedented direct drone and missile attack on Israel on April 13, retaliating for the April 1 Israeli airstrike on Iran's Damascus consulate that killed senior IRGC commanders. Israel responded with a limited strike near Isfahan on April 19, after which Iranian officials declared the matter "concluded" to avert wider war. No further direct actions have occurred, though Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah intensify border clashes with Israel and Houthis sustain Red Sea attacks on shipping and US assets. With the April 30 deadline looming, markets weigh Tehran's restraint amid economic sanctions, nuclear talks impasse, and US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation against persistent threats of retaliation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$41,762Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between Iran and Israel dominate trader sentiment following Tehran's unprecedented direct drone and missile attack on Israel on April 13, retaliating for the April 1 Israeli airstrike on Iran's Damascus consulate that killed senior IRGC commanders. Israel responded with a limited strike near Isfahan on April 19, after which Iranian officials declared the matter "concluded" to avert wider war. No further direct actions have occurred, though Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah intensify border clashes with Israel and Houthis sustain Red Sea attacks on shipping and US assets. With the April 30 deadline looming, markets weigh Tehran's restraint amid economic sanctions, nuclear talks impasse, and US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation against persistent threats of retaliation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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