Market icon
Eleições·Eleições Nos EUA

Participação no primeiro turno das primárias republicanas no Senado do Texas

Market icon
Eleições·Eleições Nos EUA

Participação no primeiro turno das primárias republicanas no Senado do Texas

2,0–2,2M 100.0%

<2,0M <1%

2,2–2,4M <1%

2,4–2,6M <1%

Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

2,0–2,2M 100.0%

<2,0M <1%

2,2–2,4M <1%

2,4–2,6M <1%

Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

<2,0M

$0 Vol.

Não

2,0–2,2M

$0 Vol.

Sim

2,2–2,4M

$0 Vol.

Não

2,4–2,6M

$0 Vol.

Não

2,6–2,8M

$0 Vol.

Não

2,8M+

$0 Vol.

Não

Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Record early voting in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary has driven trader consensus to overwhelmingly favor 2.0–2.2 million votes, with over 970,000 GOP early ballots already surpassing 2018 records amid high presidential primary interest between Trump and Haley supporters. Incumbent Ted Cruz's commanding lead—polling above 80% with minimal challengers—limits Senate-specific mobilization, but statewide enthusiasm from downballot contests and voter outreach sustains turnout pace. Historical GOP primary highs around 1.6 million in competitive cycles support this projection, reflecting wisdom-of-crowds pricing. Realistic challenges include adverse Election Day weather on March 5, processing delays, or voter complacency yielding under 2 million total.

Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.

This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$0
Data de Término
Mar 3, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 5, 2026, 7:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Resultado proposto: Sim

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Sim

Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Record early voting in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary has driven trader consensus to overwhelmingly favor 2.0–2.2 million votes, with over 970,000 GOP early ballots already surpassing 2018 records amid high presidential primary interest between Trump and Haley supporters. Incumbent Ted Cruz's commanding lead—polling above 80% with minimal challengers—limits Senate-specific mobilization, but statewide enthusiasm from downballot contests and voter outreach sustains turnout pace. Historical GOP primary highs around 1.6 million in competitive cycles support this projection, reflecting wisdom-of-crowds pricing. Realistic challenges include adverse Election Day weather on March 5, processing delays, or voter complacency yielding under 2 million total.

Record early voting in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary has driven trader consensus to overwhelmingly favor 2.0–2.2 million votes, with over 970,000 GOP early ballots already surpassing 2018 records amid high presidential primary interest between Trump and Haley supporters. Incumbent Ted Cruz's commanding lead—polling above 80% with minimal challengers—limits Senate-specific mobilization, but statewide enthusiasm from downballot contests and voter outreach sustains turnout pace. Historical GOP primary highs around 1.6 million in competitive cycles support this projection, reflecting wisdom-of-crowds pricing. Realistic challenges include adverse Election Day weather on March 5, processing delays, or voter complacency yielding under 2 million total.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Participação no primeiro turno das primárias republicanas no Senado do Texas" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2,0–2,2M" at 100%, followed by "<2,0M" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Participação no primeiro turno das primárias republicanas no Senado do Texas" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Participação no primeiro turno das primárias republicanas no Senado do Texas," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Participação no primeiro turno das primárias republicanas no Senado do Texas" is "2,0–2,2M" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<2,0M" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Participação no primeiro turno das primárias republicanas no Senado do Texas" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.