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Eleições·Primária Do Senado

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Dakota do Sul

Market icon
Eleições·Primária Do Senado

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Dakota do Sul

Mike Rounds 87%

Kristi Noem 5.9%

Justin McNeal 3.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Mike Rounds 87%

Kristi Noem 5.9%

Justin McNeal 3.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Mike Rounds

$2,948 Vol.

82%

Kristi Noem

$0 Vol.

6%

Justin McNeal

$0 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Dakota. If no 2026 South Dakota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Sen. Mike Rounds holds a commanding trader consensus at 80.5% implied probability to win South Dakota's June 2 Republican Senate primary, driven by his January reelection announcement, strong 2020 primary victory (75%-25%), and incumbency advantages in the deep-red state where no major challengers have committed resources. Navy veteran Justin McNeal's March 15 grassroots campaign launch—emphasizing debt reduction and term limits—lifted his odds to 3.2%, signaling early conservative dissatisfaction. Former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's odds linger at 5.7% amid post-departure speculation since early March, including her March 24 replacement by Markwayne Mullin, but traders discount unconfirmed entry amid her national profile uncertainties. Absent polls, consensus favors Rounds absent late shifts.

Incumbent Sen. Mike Rounds holds a commanding trader consensus at 80.5% implied probability to win South Dakota's June 2 Republican Senate primary, driven by his January reelection announcement, strong 2020 primary victory (75%-25%), and incumbency advantages in the deep-red state where no major challengers have committed resources. Navy veteran Justin McNeal's March 15 grassroots campaign launch—emphasizing debt reduction and term limits—lifted his odds to 3.2%, signaling early conservative dissatisfaction. Former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's odds linger at 5.7% amid post-departure speculation since early March, including her March 24 replacement by Markwayne Mullin, but traders discount unconfirmed entry amid her national profile uncertainties. Absent polls, consensus favors Rounds absent late shifts.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Dakota. If no 2026 South Dakota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Sen. Mike Rounds holds a commanding trader consensus at 80.5% implied probability to win South Dakota's June 2 Republican Senate primary, driven by his January reelection announcement, strong 2020 primary victory (75%-25%), and incumbency advantages in the deep-red state where no major challengers have committed resources. Navy veteran Justin McNeal's March 15 grassroots campaign launch—emphasizing debt reduction and term limits—lifted his odds to 3.2%, signaling early conservative dissatisfaction. Former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's odds linger at 5.7% amid post-departure speculation since early March, including her March 24 replacement by Markwayne Mullin, but traders discount unconfirmed entry amid her national profile uncertainties. Absent polls, consensus favors Rounds absent late shifts.

Incumbent Sen. Mike Rounds holds a commanding trader consensus at 80.5% implied probability to win South Dakota's June 2 Republican Senate primary, driven by his January reelection announcement, strong 2020 primary victory (75%-25%), and incumbency advantages in the deep-red state where no major challengers have committed resources. Navy veteran Justin McNeal's March 15 grassroots campaign launch—emphasizing debt reduction and term limits—lifted his odds to 3.2%, signaling early conservative dissatisfaction. Former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's odds linger at 5.7% amid post-departure speculation since early March, including her March 24 replacement by Markwayne Mullin, but traders discount unconfirmed entry amid her national profile uncertainties. Absent polls, consensus favors Rounds absent late shifts.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Dakota do Sul" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Rounds" at 82%, followed by "Kristi Noem" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Dakota do Sul" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 25, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Dakota do Sul," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Dakota do Sul" is "Mike Rounds" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kristi Noem" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Dakota do Sul" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.