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Política·Eleições Nos EUA

Candidato presidencial republicano 2028

Market icon
Política·Eleições Nos EUA

Candidato presidencial republicano 2028

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.5%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$511,463,542 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.5%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$511,463,542 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$8,930,446 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,821,658 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,438,349 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,981,385 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,524,816 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,866,380 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,678,077 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,007,854 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,294,636 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,617,837 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,955,860 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,458,917 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,929,495 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,673,452 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,094,977 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,490,906 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,601,803 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,267,490 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,337,933 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,303,190 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,169,196 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,722,931 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,434,790 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,673,754 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,156,358 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,127,900 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,200,390 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,647,704 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,501,544 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,677,715 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,344,363 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,290,042 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,131,607 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$11,842,466 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$34,271,966 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, driven by his high-profile role in the Trump administration—praising its competence in a March video—and his cousin Jack Schlossberg's March 7 declaration of a "definite" 2028 bid, signaling strong anti-establishment appeal to the GOP base. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 37% amid a recent CPAC straw poll victory but faces uncertainty after reports of indecision amid foreign policy tensions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21% reflects surging donor backing and elevation from handling the Iran war, as President Trump informally polls advisers on Vance versus Rubio successors, highlighting an open early GOP primary field ahead of 2028 caucuses.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$511,463,542
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, driven by his high-profile role in the Trump administration—praising its competence in a March video—and his cousin Jack Schlossberg's March 7 declaration of a "definite" 2028 bid, signaling strong anti-establishment appeal to the GOP base. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 37% amid a recent CPAC straw poll victory but faces uncertainty after reports of indecision amid foreign policy tensions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21% reflects surging donor backing and elevation from handling the Iran war, as President Trump informally polls advisers on Vance versus Rubio successors, highlighting an open early GOP primary field ahead of 2028 caucuses.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$511,463,542
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" has generated $511.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.