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Política·Eleições Nos EUA

Candidato presidencial republicano 2028

Market icon
Política·Eleições Nos EUA

Candidato presidencial republicano 2028

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 21.1%

Tucker Carlson 4.5%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$508,187,385 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 21.1%

Tucker Carlson 4.5%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$508,187,385 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$8,310,350 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,804,368 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,402,630 Vol.

4%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,966,342 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,514,722 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,672,725 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,005,591 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,853,261 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,229,926 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,944,460 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,457,673 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,373,395 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,582,105 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,634,845 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,523,161 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,079,165 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,475,794 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,147,373 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,259,075 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,385,747 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,290,922 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,278,423 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,700,316 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,641,761 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,117,142 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,059,123 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,105,798 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,590,836 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,412,717 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,613,918 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,239,548 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,091,250 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,996,292 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$11,566,928 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$33,886,014 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, driven by his high visibility and 60% GOP favorability on health freedom issues within Trump's administration, despite recent MAHA agenda setbacks reported April 1. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 37% as the presumed heir apparent, bolstered by his new memoir "Communion" announcement April 1 and recent Rockbridge Network donor summit appearance, though donor support wanes amid rumors of Trump's private polling favoring alternatives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 21% gains from escalating Iran war dynamics highlighting his diplomatic role, CPAC straw poll strength (35%), and shifting donor backing away from Vance. Midterm 2026 races loom as key tests for these early frontrunners.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$508,187,385
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, driven by his high visibility and 60% GOP favorability on health freedom issues within Trump's administration, despite recent MAHA agenda setbacks reported April 1. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 37% as the presumed heir apparent, bolstered by his new memoir "Communion" announcement April 1 and recent Rockbridge Network donor summit appearance, though donor support wanes amid rumors of Trump's private polling favoring alternatives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 21% gains from escalating Iran war dynamics highlighting his diplomatic role, CPAC straw poll strength (35%), and shifting donor backing away from Vance. Midterm 2026 races loom as key tests for these early frontrunners.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$508,187,385
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" has generated $508.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.